SOL just touched 103.26 at the start of the session, but now it’s fallen back to 97.5. In the past hour there are six 1-hour candles: five are bearish. In the last 15 minutes, both moving averages have been broken through on the downside. On the chart, it’s clearly a breakdown. But when I checked the funding/flows ledger, along this drop the money really didn’t run.
Spot has net inflows of over 6 million in the last three hours, and across 12 candles not a single one is negative—every candle closed up. Meanwhile, contract open interest didn’t fall on the day; it actually increased by 7.36%. As price moves downward, both OI and spot buy orders are rising together. This looks like someone is adding on dips right under the falling price—not exiting.
For the short-term contract side, they really are withdrawing: the share of aggressive buy orders dropped to 45.9%, whale long positions decreased by 7.88% over seven hours, and the latest 15-minute large orders also show net outflow. But what’s being withdrawn is floating profit—whales still hold long positions comprising 68% of their accounts. In the most recent five-candle window, large orders are still net inflows, with a fee rate of only 0.01%, meaning longs aren’t crowded at all.
My view: go long. This pullback is washing out the floating chase positions, not breaking the trend. The 4-hour and daily directions are still upward, and the ADX (30) trend is taking shape. Reclaiming 98 and recovering 100 will confirm it. The first target is a break of 103.26. The reversal conditions are very specific: spot net inflows turn negative for two or three consecutive candles, large orders show consecutive net outflows, or price closes back below 95—at that point the dip-buying logic is invalidated and the bias flips short.
#sol $SOL
Spot has net inflows of over 6 million in the last three hours, and across 12 candles not a single one is negative—every candle closed up. Meanwhile, contract open interest didn’t fall on the day; it actually increased by 7.36%. As price moves downward, both OI and spot buy orders are rising together. This looks like someone is adding on dips right under the falling price—not exiting.
For the short-term contract side, they really are withdrawing: the share of aggressive buy orders dropped to 45.9%, whale long positions decreased by 7.88% over seven hours, and the latest 15-minute large orders also show net outflow. But what’s being withdrawn is floating profit—whales still hold long positions comprising 68% of their accounts. In the most recent five-candle window, large orders are still net inflows, with a fee rate of only 0.01%, meaning longs aren’t crowded at all.
My view: go long. This pullback is washing out the floating chase positions, not breaking the trend. The 4-hour and daily directions are still upward, and the ADX (30) trend is taking shape. Reclaiming 98 and recovering 100 will confirm it. The first target is a break of 103.26. The reversal conditions are very specific: spot net inflows turn negative for two or three consecutive candles, large orders show consecutive net outflows, or price closes back below 95—at that point the dip-buying logic is invalidated and the bias flips short.
#sol $SOL
