Recently, the crypto market has seen a strong rebound. $BTC has recorded a maximum gain of 37% from its stage low, while $ETH has been even more impressive in its realization, with gains breaking 60%. However, the overall trend of this rapid rally is distorted and lacks a solid foundation, and it does not have the conditions for long-term, sustained upward growth.
The market broadly recognizes four main positive factors behind this upswing: the U.S. Treasury stepping up buybacks, the implementation of the crypto legislation, the SEC’s softened regulatory stance, and a concentrated squeeze of short sellers. But when examined one by one, only the Treasury buyback is barely related to a liquidity boost; the other positives have not been substantively realized.
Moreover, Treasury buybacks essentially involve swapping short-term debt for long-term debt. This does not create any additional dollar inflow, does not expand the balance sheet or print money, and only alleviates the transactional bottlenecks in long-term bonds. It cannot inject fresh capital into the market. What you’re seeing now is essentially an in-market tug-of-war and a momentum-and-emotion “turning in circles” rally.
Without new incremental funds entering the market, the rise is inevitably a superficial one, and the risk of a pullback is extremely high. Based on time-cycle forecasting, from mid-to-late September to early October, the market will most likely give back the gains in depth—falling back to the original breakout point. Within just one month, the market’s trajectory will fully validate this logic.
#BTC触及80000美元 #日本9至10月不再释放石油储备 #Solana现货ETF累计净流入创纪录12.2亿美元
The market broadly recognizes four main positive factors behind this upswing: the U.S. Treasury stepping up buybacks, the implementation of the crypto legislation, the SEC’s softened regulatory stance, and a concentrated squeeze of short sellers. But when examined one by one, only the Treasury buyback is barely related to a liquidity boost; the other positives have not been substantively realized.
Moreover, Treasury buybacks essentially involve swapping short-term debt for long-term debt. This does not create any additional dollar inflow, does not expand the balance sheet or print money, and only alleviates the transactional bottlenecks in long-term bonds. It cannot inject fresh capital into the market. What you’re seeing now is essentially an in-market tug-of-war and a momentum-and-emotion “turning in circles” rally.
Without new incremental funds entering the market, the rise is inevitably a superficial one, and the risk of a pullback is extremely high. Based on time-cycle forecasting, from mid-to-late September to early October, the market will most likely give back the gains in depth—falling back to the original breakout point. Within just one month, the market’s trajectory will fully validate this logic.
#BTC触及80000美元 #日本9至10月不再释放石油储备 #Solana现货ETF累计净流入创纪录12.2亿美元
