HYPE surged 35% in one week, and the money that could determine the direction of this move is already withdrawing. The contract open interest shrank by 10.93% in a single day—dropping from 450 million to 400 million. The system immediately labels it as bear_capitulation—leveraged longs are lining up to surrender, yet the price still stubbornly holds around 80 as if nothing’s wrong. It hasn’t even managed to test a new high once.
83.485 was the high left on 8/23. In the past two days, it has tried to break through twice but failed both times. The 15-minute chart has already fallen below the MA20 and MA50, and the 4-hour outlook is “exhausting”; the remaining momentum acceleration is only 0.17. In a market that’s rallied 35%, the bullish strength that should be there is completely missing.
The funding side also confirms it: the whales’ long positions decreased by 1.61% over 7 hours. On the account side the decline is also visible, while the retail long/short ratio is still holding at 1.29. On the order book, 611 sell orders sit on top of 504 buy orders—there’s a sell wall directly above your head, and the fee rate is still positive. That’s leftover fuel that hasn’t fully burned through yet, not fresh buy-side demand.
At this level, I’m going short. I’ll enter short on the pullback to the 20/50 moving average around 80.7. The first target is 76.7, the day low. If it breaks, then look for the three-day low at 70.6. Stop loss is above 82.4. Once volume increases and price holds above 83.485, and open interest expands again, it will indicate this move was only rotation, and then the short positions will exit and flip to long. #hype $HYPE
83.485 was the high left on 8/23. In the past two days, it has tried to break through twice but failed both times. The 15-minute chart has already fallen below the MA20 and MA50, and the 4-hour outlook is “exhausting”; the remaining momentum acceleration is only 0.17. In a market that’s rallied 35%, the bullish strength that should be there is completely missing.
The funding side also confirms it: the whales’ long positions decreased by 1.61% over 7 hours. On the account side the decline is also visible, while the retail long/short ratio is still holding at 1.29. On the order book, 611 sell orders sit on top of 504 buy orders—there’s a sell wall directly above your head, and the fee rate is still positive. That’s leftover fuel that hasn’t fully burned through yet, not fresh buy-side demand.
At this level, I’m going short. I’ll enter short on the pullback to the 20/50 moving average around 80.7. The first target is 76.7, the day low. If it breaks, then look for the three-day low at 70.6. Stop loss is above 82.4. Once volume increases and price holds above 83.485, and open interest expands again, it will indicate this move was only rotation, and then the short positions will exit and flip to long. #hype $HYPE
