### Gold falls after nearing $4,700
Gold slipped to around $4,640 on Tuesday after touching its highest level in more than three months, leaving traders asking: is this just a temporary pause in the rally, or the start of a deeper correction? Short-term charts put the $4,615–$4,623 area as the first key support, while the overall trend remains positive as markets await U.S. inflation data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole conference.
According to Reuters, spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,640.39 per ounce by 3:34 p.m. GMT on August 25, after the metal hit its highest level in three months. U.S. gold futures changed little and stayed near $4,696, keeping the futures market priced at a premium over the spot price.
### Reasons for the recent rise
The recent rise in gold was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower yields on long-term Treasury bonds, after the U.S. Treasury announced plans to expand its program to repurchase longer-dated bonds. The dollar index was close to 98.96 during Tuesday’s Asian trading, as investors continue to assess the implications of the Treasury intervention and ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal policy.
Attention is now turning to U.S. inflation data (PCE) and the first speech by Fed Chair in Jackson Hole. Persistent inflation could keep expectations for interest rates elevated, which typically acts as a headwind for gold (which does not yield), while weaker inflation or a less hawkish political signal could pave the way for another upside push.
### Technical levels (XAU/USD)
The 15-minute chart shows a sharp pullback in gold after testing the $4,680–$4,700 area. Forex Expertise analysts identified the $4,615–$4,623 range as the first liquidity zone and reaction area during the day. Holding this zone may allow buyers to challenge the $4,658–$4,668 level before another test of the top liquidity zone at $4,680–$4,692.
Above that, the $4,700–$4,712 area is the main short-term breakout zone; holding the price above $4,712 on the 15-minute chart would invalidate bearish scenarios and increase the chances that the uptrend continues.
If gold fails to hold the $4,615 level, the next support lies at $4,588–$4,597, followed by stronger support at $4,558–$4,568. Any decisive break below $4,558 would indicate that the current pullback is turning into a deeper correction rather than just a routine retest.
### The weekly trend remains positive
The weekly chart for COMEX gold futures looks more optimistic over the long term; contracts were near $4,693, comfortably above the 50-week exponential moving average of around $4,278. The weekly Relative Strength Index also rose to about 59.7, recovering above the neutral 50 level without entering the overbought zone—which suggests improving momentum after the previous pullback from the prior peak above $5,000.
TD Securities told Reuters that gold is still supported, but it suggested it may be too early for the metal to reach its $5,350 target, especially if inflation pressure keeps interest rates high.
Summary: For the near-term outlook for gold, the $4,615 level is the first test for a decline, while the $4,700–$4,712 area represents the main bullish catalyst. Holding support and reclaiming that resistance would support another upswing, while a break below $4,558 would indicate a more substantial correction rather than a routine retest.