These past few days, I've been staring at the Bitcoin candlestick on the screen. The price just rebounded to $79,000, and the fan group started to get restless again. Some shouted 'Bull is back', while others posted memes about 'going all in'. I took a sip of my cold coffee, and the bitterness spread from my tongue — this market is probably not that simple.
1. This wave of rebound always reminds me of last May.
Last night's surge, from $75,000 to $78,600, looked beautiful, right? But my first reaction was to immediately switch to the options data page — sure enough, there was a large accumulation of put options at $75,000. This is not a 'bull market return'; it is clearly a technical rebound triggered by bears closing positions at a critical level.
A market maker friend in the group messaged me at midnight: "Don't be too excited; this is just passive buying." He told me that several large accounts placed buy orders around $75,000, and the orders trigger automatically when the price hits, not indicating active aggression at all.
What truly alarms me is that Bitcoin can't even hold $79,000. Each time it approaches this level, selling pressure noticeably increases. I'm too familiar with this kind of trend — it's a typical weak rebound characteristic.
2. This data makes me feel uneasy
Don't just look at the surface price fluctuations; check out these details:
Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, with another $2.85 million leaving yesterday. Institutional funds are retreating, which is not a good sign.
The futures funding rate is still positive, although not high, it indicates that long leverage hasn't been fully cleared. The market still has room to drop.
$75,000 is a key defense line, and the options market has made it clear: if it breaks here, the next levels could be $70,000, $65,000...
The DeFi sector has risen slightly, but NFTs and GameFi continue to decline, with funds rapidly rotating between sectors, lacking a main line.
What makes me even more uneasy is the trading volume — insufficient during rebounds but increasing during declines. This kind of volume-price divergence is something old traders understand what it means.
3. The shadow of the Federal Reserve is larger than expected
Today, I had a small meeting with a few traders. Everyone had a clear consensus: the root cause of this adjustment lies in the macro environment, not in the crypto market itself.
Recent speeches from those officials at the Federal Reserve are increasingly hawkish. Market expectations for rate cuts keep being pushed back, the dollar is strong, and risk assets are suffering.
"Thursday's unemployment data and Friday's non-farm payrolls are crucial. If the data remains strong, the crypto market will continue to feel pressure."
I flipped through the calendar, and the release times for these two pieces of data happen to be late at night in Asia. I have to stay up late to watch the market again.
4. Ethereum worries me more
Bitcoin has at least bounced back a bit, while Ethereum can't even hold $2,300. What's worse is the technical pattern — the daily level has formed a downtrend, with each rebound peak decreasing.
I chatted with a few large Ethereum holders, and they are also quite helpless. "It's not that we don't believe in Ethereum's future, but there really are no catalysts right now," said a friend who holds over 10,000 ETH. "ETF funds are flowing out, there are no new stories in the ecosystem, and we can only follow the market."
However, he also mentioned one point: Ethereum's MVRV has entered a historically low area. "From a valuation perspective, it does start to look attractive. But where the bottom is, no one knows."
5. My operation: Better to miss out than to make a mistake
In this kind of market, my strategy is very simple: focus on defense.
1. Position control: Reduce total position to below 50%, only keeping those targets I plan to hold for three years.
2. Don't go long or short: In this kind of volatile market, both longs and shorts can be easily wiped out.
3. Pay attention to key positions: Bitcoin $75,000, if it breaks, it may accelerate; Ethereum $2,000, psychological support level.
4. Keep enough ammunition: Increase the proportion of USDT to 40%, waiting for more certain opportunities.
I know someone in the group jumped in this morning and even posted a screenshot of a long position. I said nothing — in the crypto world, everyone must take responsibility for their decisions. In 2018 and 2022, I've seen too many stories of people getting stuck because they were "afraid of missing out."
6. Some immature thoughts
A few thoughts popped into my mind:
This adjustment may last longer than expected. It's not just a crypto issue; the global liquidity environment is changing.
The alt-season may be delayed. If Bitcoin isn't stable, altcoins are even less likely to have independent trends. Those shouting that "the alt-season is here" are either newcomers or have ulterior motives.
True opportunities come during despair. Now there are still people in the group shouting to buy the dip, which indicates the market has not yet reached a truly desperate moment. Once everyone is quiet, opportunities may arise.
The crypto world is never short of miracles, but more often it is plagued by grinding fluctuations and unexpected drops. As an old investor, I've learned two important things: preserve your capital and maintain patience.
A bull market will come, but not today.
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