Market cycles are often summarized into four stages: accumulation, rising, distribution, and falling, but it isn’t an exact clock. During the accumulation phase, sentiment is low and prices fluctuate repeatedly; in the rising phase, trends and attention increase; in the distribution phase, good news comes frequently, but the rally lacks momentum, and early capital may cash out; in the falling phase, liquidity contracts and panic widens. Cycle analysis can only help construct scenarios—it cannot guarantee predictions of turning points. A more prudent approach is to plan in batches, control leverage, and watch trading volume, macro liquidity, and market sentiment, rather than focusing only on some “magic top.”