8.25
Red Tide Community
BTC’s most critical question right now: has Wave 4 ended?
Put the conclusion first: the move from 62,275 up to 79,500 already matches a fully developed Wave 3. It rose by 17,225 points, about 1.88 times the length of Wave 1. So next, you shouldn’t chase highs with the mindset of “the main uptrend just started.” Instead, focus on the pullback in Wave 4 and the opportunity for the final push of Wave 5.
Many people get afraid when they hear “correction.” But Wave 4 isn’t necessarily a crash. Currently BTC is consolidating on lower volume between 75,546–78,828, which closely resembles a Wave 4 platform consolidation. Rising on increasing volume and consolidating on decreasing volume suggests this looks more like rotation and washing out, and we haven’t seen clear distribution yet.
In simple terms: if support near 75,400 holds, the market may only be using sideways movement to complete Wave 4. If it breaks below 74,400, then you should worry that Wave 4 “sideways correction” is upgrading into a deeper pullback.
Wave scenarios
Key levels
Trading interpretation
Wave 4 consolidation completed
Stabilizes above 75,400
If it doesn’t break on the pullback, keep waiting for the Wave 5 opportunity
Wave 5 launch confirmation
Valid breakout above 79,500
Don’t short too early; first look for 82,600–83,900
Wave 5 first target
82,600–83,900
Watch for emotion acceleration and pressure—this is a high-zone battleground
Wave 5 theoretical extension
88,656
Only consider the far-end target if there is a strong breakout and sustained volume expansion
Wave 4 deepens
72,900–73,100
If 74,400 is lost, be patient and wait for deeper support rather than fighting it
Execution specifics: 74,400–74,700 is the long setup area for the pullback. If 79,500 sees a spike and then a pullback, that’s your first observation point for a potential short. But if 79,500 breaks out on expanded volume and holds, don’t stubbornly short against the trend. The next leg should wait for the emotional extreme zone of 82,500–83,900.
Finally, one most practical line: Wave 3 makes people believe “buying anything can make money,” while Wave 5 makes people believe “it will never go down.” The only people who should make money are those who trade the pullbacks and breakouts strictly within their plan.
#BTC☀ #BTC走势分析
Red Tide Community
BTC’s most critical question right now: has Wave 4 ended?
Put the conclusion first: the move from 62,275 up to 79,500 already matches a fully developed Wave 3. It rose by 17,225 points, about 1.88 times the length of Wave 1. So next, you shouldn’t chase highs with the mindset of “the main uptrend just started.” Instead, focus on the pullback in Wave 4 and the opportunity for the final push of Wave 5.
Many people get afraid when they hear “correction.” But Wave 4 isn’t necessarily a crash. Currently BTC is consolidating on lower volume between 75,546–78,828, which closely resembles a Wave 4 platform consolidation. Rising on increasing volume and consolidating on decreasing volume suggests this looks more like rotation and washing out, and we haven’t seen clear distribution yet.
In simple terms: if support near 75,400 holds, the market may only be using sideways movement to complete Wave 4. If it breaks below 74,400, then you should worry that Wave 4 “sideways correction” is upgrading into a deeper pullback.
Wave scenarios
Key levels
Trading interpretation
Wave 4 consolidation completed
Stabilizes above 75,400
If it doesn’t break on the pullback, keep waiting for the Wave 5 opportunity
Wave 5 launch confirmation
Valid breakout above 79,500
Don’t short too early; first look for 82,600–83,900
Wave 5 first target
82,600–83,900
Watch for emotion acceleration and pressure—this is a high-zone battleground
Wave 5 theoretical extension
88,656
Only consider the far-end target if there is a strong breakout and sustained volume expansion
Wave 4 deepens
72,900–73,100
If 74,400 is lost, be patient and wait for deeper support rather than fighting it
Execution specifics: 74,400–74,700 is the long setup area for the pullback. If 79,500 sees a spike and then a pullback, that’s your first observation point for a potential short. But if 79,500 breaks out on expanded volume and holds, don’t stubbornly short against the trend. The next leg should wait for the emotional extreme zone of 82,500–83,900.
Finally, one most practical line: Wave 3 makes people believe “buying anything can make money,” while Wave 5 makes people believe “it will never go down.” The only people who should make money are those who trade the pullbacks and breakouts strictly within their plan.
#BTC☀ #BTC走势分析