Job market cracks showing up in the data that actually matters.
NY Fed survey: job seekers jumped from 22.5% to 24.9% between March and July. The sharpest spike? People earning under $60k.
This isn't about tech layoffs or Wall Street restructuring. This is the bottom half of the income distribution feeling pressure first—the folks with the least cushion, the ones who can't wait out a soft patch.
When lower-income households start scrambling for work, it's usually a leading indicator, not a lagging one. They feel the turn before it shows up in headline unemployment.
Pay attention to who's hurting. They're the canary.
NY Fed survey: job seekers jumped from 22.5% to 24.9% between March and July. The sharpest spike? People earning under $60k.
This isn't about tech layoffs or Wall Street restructuring. This is the bottom half of the income distribution feeling pressure first—the folks with the least cushion, the ones who can't wait out a soft patch.
When lower-income households start scrambling for work, it's usually a leading indicator, not a lagging one. They feel the turn before it shows up in headline unemployment.
Pay attention to who's hurting. They're the canary.
