Before the 84.12 24-hour low, the price had already come right up to the line and stayed there squatting. In the four-hour chart, there are six K-lines, with five closing bearish. The 20 and 50 moving averages are both pressing down overhead. Strangely, though, the open position volume decreased by 5.16% in a day—among the eight funding-rate windows, there were no positive ones at all. The drop is real, but the sell-off wasn’t driven by new shorts; it was shorts? No—it's longs who cut their own positions.
In aggressive trades, sells account for 55%, and the long/short ratio is 0.82, with selling pressure continuously pushing the price down. Yet since open interest is shrinking, this selloff hasn’t attracted new short positions—it’s being propped up purely by long liquidations. There’s a bad-tempered feature of the liquidation orders: when the level isn’t broken, they leak out slowly; once a level breaks, they turn into a waterfall and dump downward.
The only thing catching the downside is the “whale.” Over seven hours, the long accounts increased by 10.69% quarter-over-quarter, but the long/short positioning ratio is still at 0.62, and net exposure remains slightly bearish. They caught it, but didn’t catch it properly—the price is still hugging the lows.
So here I go short, betting that once 84.12 breaks, long liquidation will accelerate into a further cascade downward. The stop loss is set above the 20 MA at 84.88. If it breaks, then this trade is wrong.
When does the view flip? When the four-hour candle turns positive and reclaims 84.88, open interest turns and rises again, and the funding rate turns positive—then real new longs are putting in actual money. This move is just a shakeout; the short positions should get out. #cl $CL
In aggressive trades, sells account for 55%, and the long/short ratio is 0.82, with selling pressure continuously pushing the price down. Yet since open interest is shrinking, this selloff hasn’t attracted new short positions—it’s being propped up purely by long liquidations. There’s a bad-tempered feature of the liquidation orders: when the level isn’t broken, they leak out slowly; once a level breaks, they turn into a waterfall and dump downward.
The only thing catching the downside is the “whale.” Over seven hours, the long accounts increased by 10.69% quarter-over-quarter, but the long/short positioning ratio is still at 0.62, and net exposure remains slightly bearish. They caught it, but didn’t catch it properly—the price is still hugging the lows.
So here I go short, betting that once 84.12 breaks, long liquidation will accelerate into a further cascade downward. The stop loss is set above the 20 MA at 84.88. If it breaks, then this trade is wrong.
When does the view flip? When the four-hour candle turns positive and reclaims 84.88, open interest turns and rises again, and the funding rate turns positive—then real new longs are putting in actual money. This move is just a shakeout; the short positions should get out. #cl $CL
