$BTC In just a little over a month, it rebounded strongly from around 60,000 to the 80,000 threshold. This is clearly not a typical weak bear-market retest.
The past week saw gains of over 20%, plus spot ETF net inflows of nearly $2 billion in a single week. With both price and capital moving back into sync, many people are starting to doubt: in the classic four-year cycle, does the logic of “finding a bottom in September–October” still hold?
Actually, in strict cycle theory there’s an easily misunderstood point: the “9–10 month base-building” in time does not mean that the lowest price must be forced to appear only in autumn.
The first possibility—which is also the path I currently lean toward—is that the price bottom is confirmed early, with the autumn moving as a Higher Low.
The 60,000 area earlier may already be the lowest point in terms of price. After that, it could completely evolve into a path like “60K → 82K → 72K/75K → 90K.”
By September to October, the market forms a higher low through a deep pullback, which both matches the cyclical timing for finding a bottom and completes a second structural confirmation.
The second, more volatile scenario is a second dip after a rebound at a larger scale.
If the market continues to surge to 83K—85K, triggering everyone across the internet to call for a new bull market, and then it falls back to 70K, 65K, or even breaks below 60K again, that would indicate that the current uptrend is only a bear-market rebound.
If you can’t even hold the 60,000 mark, then the traditional cycle rule of “finding a bottom in September to October” will regain control, and we’ll look for the true absolute bottom.
The third observation that must be kept in mind is that the four-year cycle itself is either arriving early or being weakened.
Today’s market structure is completely different from 2018 and 2022; ETF spot inflows, listed companies’ holdings, and derivatives depth have all changed the rules of the game.
You can take the cycle as a reference, but if you cling to the dogma that “it must bottom out before October” and short aggressively against the trend, it’s very easy to get sent away directly by this wave of capital.
Therefore, we’re neither eager to declare a new bull market, nor do we recommend shorting against the trend. The real key focus is the first genuine daily-level pullback.
For now, focus on 78K for the short term. Below that, support lies at 74K—75K.
If, after the rally and pullback, the market can stabilize around 75K and break above the previous high again, then the confirmation of this Higher Low (a higher low) is far more important than simply saying, “it went up another 5% today.”
On the other hand, if after this rally the market breaks below 70K and even goes through 60K, then the logic of finding a major bottom in autumn will be fully proven.
The overall trend direction throughout September will be the decisive key.
If by October there isn’t a decent pullback, then it’s basically safe to conclude that the 50K to 60K range is the bottom;
If, after a few days of this price action, a pullback curve begins, then the next retracement is very likely to be the final bottom-buying window of this bear market. This autumn test is definitely worth期待.#BTC触及80000美元 
