A week ago, BTC was still struggling at the doorstep of 64,000; today it stands at 80,800. Its weekly gain is nearly 26%—the strongest week since 2023.
But more worth writing than “how much it’s up” is “why it’s rising.”
📌 Three major engines ignite at the same time
① The U.S. Treasury announces it will double the scale of long-term Treasury repo transactions from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per time, starting on September 9. Long-end yields fall on the news, and funds are pushed back into risk assets. The market coins a new term for this move: “financial repression”—the government suppresses borrowing costs while inflation erodes debt, which is precisely the scenario $BTC was designed to hedge.
② Shorts were liquidated. Over $4.0 billion in short positions across the entire market were forced to close; just BTC’s daily liquidations alone neared $1.4 billion—the largest since 2021. The buy orders that were forced to cover turned the rebound into a rocket.
③ Institutions are back. Spot BTC ETF net inflows of 1.92 billion yuan in a single week—the strongest since October 2025; BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed 1.3 billion.
📌 The real narrative: Debasement Trade
When the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to a new high in 19 years, and the Treasury was forced to step in to suppress yields, the $BTC “decentralized value storage” narrative finally gained macro fundamental support for the first time. Gold and silver also surged in tandem—same underlying logic: hedging against currency debasement.
📌 Risks are equally clear
RSI is approaching the most overbought level in two years; sell pressure around 80,000 is heavy. This coming Friday, the Fed’s new chair will speak at Jackson Hole—this could cool down this round of “liquidity gambling,” or it could pour gasoline on the fire. Support is at 75,000–76,000; if that breaks, look back to 70,000.
For altcoins, $SOL has already broken above 100 as the leading momentum stock (currently at 101.8). On-chain, active addresses have seen a renewed golden cross—last time this appeared, it jumped from 145 to 245. But there are signs of a short-term pullback; 83 is the observation level.
💡 My take
This isn’t the end, but it’s also not a mindless rush. If you’re heavily positioned, protect your profits; if you’re in cash, don’t chase at the blade’s edge. Trend is a friend; timing is life.
In this move, can you see 100,000, or is 80,000 the top? Let’s discuss your target price in the comments 👇