In the past 4 hours, it rallied 3.58% and 115.5 has regained the MA20/MA50. Last night, 121 was dumped down into the dip at 106, and half the gap was refilled within half a day. But on the futures side, not a single indicator cooperates: as price rises, open positions shrink by 2.2% in a day, and in the last ~7 hours they were cut another 3%. Position value only increased by 0.9%. This isn’t fresh money coming in—it’s short covering that’s propping up the price. Once the short covering stops, there’s no follow-through.
The structure also doesn’t look good: on the 4h chart, four out of the last six candlesticks are bearish; on the daily chart, it’s still DOWN. The net intraday gain is only 0.17%. After the rebound, it surged and then just chops under 116. In the spot order book, the 20-queue sell orders are holding down the buys (0.719). The faster it rises and the more aggressively positions are reduced—this kind of rebound is most afraid that nobody will take the bait.
The whales are still adding (7h +12.9%), but overall positioning is shrinking. What’s being picked up is only a small number of big accounts; retail leverage was already left behind early, so it can’t support a trend.
Up to the area just below the prior high at 116 is the short entry zone. Stop-loss above 117. Targets are back toward 110. If positions start expanding again and the daily chart turns bullish—that would be a gear change, not a counter-rebound. Then I’ll admit I was wrong and flip long. Until that happens, this rebound is for distribution. #soxl $SOXL
The structure also doesn’t look good: on the 4h chart, four out of the last six candlesticks are bearish; on the daily chart, it’s still DOWN. The net intraday gain is only 0.17%. After the rebound, it surged and then just chops under 116. In the spot order book, the 20-queue sell orders are holding down the buys (0.719). The faster it rises and the more aggressively positions are reduced—this kind of rebound is most afraid that nobody will take the bait.
The whales are still adding (7h +12.9%), but overall positioning is shrinking. What’s being picked up is only a small number of big accounts; retail leverage was already left behind early, so it can’t support a trend.
Up to the area just below the prior high at 116 is the short entry zone. Stop-loss above 117. Targets are back toward 110. If positions start expanding again and the daily chart turns bullish—that would be a gear change, not a counter-rebound. Then I’ll admit I was wrong and flip long. Until that happens, this rebound is for distribution. #soxl $SOXL
