Brothers, the PROM alert has been triggered. After the 25% surge is completed, a huge bearish candle gets smashed down—within 1 hour it drops 10 points. The current price is 4.301, and it has already pulled back 16% from the high of 4.991. This kind of price action is the most坑人 (most deceptive). Those who chased the rally are all now hanging off the flagpole.

First look at volume and price. The volume ratio is only 0.9x, which suggests this selloff isn’t a volume-driven dump; it looks more like a natural pullback caused by the rally being too fast with no buyers stepping in. But note: the news that Bithumb listed a KRW trading pair triggered a surge in open positions by 44.3% at one point. Now, however, OI has actually decreased by 0.5%, meaning some capital is taking profits. In the short term, bullish momentum is indeed fading.

The moving average structure has already fallen apart. MA7=4.401 and MA25=4.617 are both overhead, pressing down. The short-term bears are lined up. RSI has dropped straight to 23, sitting in oversold territory. At this point, you can talk about a rebound—oversold does call for a technical correction—but the 4.4-4.6 range is packed with trapped holders. Any bounce up there just lifts a palanquin for people who are looking to get unstuck.

As for contract data: the funding rate is -0.0116%. It’s slightly negative, but the magnitude isn’t large, suggesting the shorts haven’t formed a one-sided squeeze. Buyers and sellers are still pulling against each other. Open interest hasn’t changed much, so there are no signs of panic-liquidation-style flushing yet. But there’s also no sign of fresh capital coming in to take over.

One sentence for the trading idea: don’t chase—wait for confirmation. If you want to take a long, wait for the price to retrace near the 3.739 support level and then watch how it reacts. If it breaks below 3.5, leave right away. If you’re trying to play a rebound, you can test with a small position below 4.3. Set your stop-loss at 4.1. Your first target is 4.4; only if it clears 4.6 can we start talking about a renewed push higher. As for those calling for targets like 5.2-5.9—given the current price structure, until the washout/pullback is over, those are just empty words.

Data snapshot: current price 4.301 | +22.90% in 24h | volume ratio 0.9 | RSI 23 | funding rate -0.0116%

Remember: the first rebound after a high-level spike in volume followed by a stall is an escape wave. Don’t mistake it for a starting signal and start cheering.

— 13:36 market notes