This week, there was a moment when Bitcoin fell below $76,000, and the strategy stock dropped by 7%. This movement revealed the structural fact that all positions held by the company, totaling 713502 BTC, are currently just aligned with the acquisition cost.
This reality is transforming what was once a corporate financial strategy into a benchmark that determines the market.
When scale becomes structure
Once a microstrategy, the strategy has come to hold about 3.57% of the total supply of Bitcoin. This concentration of holdings has evolved the company from a mere large holder into part of the market structure.
'Mr. Saylor is not merely bullish. He is the market,' pointed out Mr. Malthun from CryptoQuant after analyzing the strategy's position in detail. 'It is no longer a passive holding. This is the market structure itself.'
The numbers support this change. As of February 1, the strategy holds about $54.26 billion worth of 713,502 BTC at an average acquisition cost of $76,052. On Monday, when Bitcoin dropped to around $74,500, all of the company's positions temporarily turned to unrealized losses.
Subsequently, the price recovered to around $78,800, but this event made it clear that the $76,000 level became a mechanical benchmark. According to Mr. Malthun's analysis, about 61% of the current BTC circulation is above market price, while 39% is below, and the strategy's massive position is situated along that equilibrium line.
Heightened buying pressure
Amid volatility, the strategy announced additional purchases. Acquiring 855 BTC at an average acquisition cost of $87,974 demonstrates a continued commitment to the Bitcoin financial strategy, but it also introduces new structural pressure.
This additional purchase has increased the holding cost of the strategy and raised capital dependency. More importantly, the purchase price is about 7% higher than the current market price, and these newly acquired assets are already in a state of unrealized losses.
'Purchasing 855 BTC at $87,974 increased the marginal cost, raised capital dependency, and resulted in an immediate unrealized loss due to the acquisition price being 7% higher than the market price,' Mr. Malthun pointed out. 'Mr. Saylor's held BTC now exceeds the amount acquired at above market price. This means that damage during downturns will resonate more quickly.'
Different forms of leverage
The strategy's position is leveraged, but it differs from what is typically seen in general cryptocurrency trading. The company's Bitcoin acquisition funds are raised through equity issuance, convertible bonds, and other capital market tools.
According to SEC filings, the available funding capacity is broad. There remains an issuance limit of $20.33 billion for STRK preferred stock alone, with additional funding available for STRF ($1.62 billion), STRC ($3.62 billion), STRD ($4.01 billion), and common stock ($8.06 billion).
However, this dependency on capital markets may create a feedback loop. If Bitcoin prices fall, strategy stocks will decline, and the fundraising ability through equity issuance will diminish. If fundraising ability decreases, purchasing power will shrink, resulting in the loss of critical demand support in the market.
Mr. Saylor is not using leverage like a trader, but the balance sheet is amplifying risks, Mr. Malthun explained. 'If BTC drops, MSTR's stock weakens, and the desire to raise funds decreases, the feedback loop will reverse.'
What the market is truly testing
The current situation is often compared to structural vulnerabilities in past cryptocurrency markets. The strategy is not about to collapse, but the size of its position has expanded to a scale that influences market behavior.
'We have seen this structure before,' Mr. Malthun said, referencing Terra and FTX. 'It wasn't because they were bad, but because too many were dependent on them. While Mr. Saylor is not at that level now, he holds 3.57% of the total, has extremely high visibility, and if the price aligns with the acquisition cost, continued purchases will be necessary to maintain structure, making the scenario clear.'
On-chain indicators also support caution. The realized cap is stagnant, indicating almost no new capital inflow. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is trending below 1, showing that short-term holders are selling at a loss. If spot trading volume and ETF flows do not improve, the price recovery is expected to lack structural support.
Mr. Malthun concluded, 'Even if the price fluctuates near the average acquisition cost, it does not mean safety. Rather, it indicates that the market is drawing attention.' 'The market is not testing stories or beliefs, but examining how much the scale, concentration, funding structure, and current price trends depend on continued participation.'
At this point, unless the feedback loop of Bitcoin price, strategy stocks, and access to capital markets worsens, the market is expected to continue consolidating within a certain range.
