Technical Report on Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - February 3, 2026 Bitcoin is in a pronounced corrective phase after failing to consolidate levels above $100,000 in previous cycles. The current price is around $78,000 - $79,000 (with recent fluctuations between ~$74,000 in intraday lows and rebounds towards ~$79,000), showing an approximate decline of 20-25% from recent highs close to $97,000-$100,000. General Summary of Technical Indicators
Predominant trend: Bearish in the short and medium term (days/weeks), with mixed signals in oscillators suggesting possible oversold conditions and a technical rebound.
Global signal (daily): Predominantly Strong Sell on moving averages (most of MA5 to MA200 are in sell), although some oscillators indicate Buy due to oversold conditions.
Volatility: High, with thin liquidity on weekends amplifying movements (V-shaped recoveries and rapid liquidations).
Current Key Levels
Immediate support: $74,000 - $75,000 (recently tested area, with a rebound). Deeper support: $70,000 - $63,000 (some analysts see potential drop towards $58,000-$63,000 if broken).
Nearby resistance: $80,000 - $82,000 (previous consolidation zone). Strong resistance: $88,000 - $90,500 ("Buyer Zone" area and previous breakout). Higher up: $95,000 - $100,000+ to invalidate the bearish correction.
Channel trend: Bitcoin has broken previous horizontal and bullish trend channels in medium/long timeframes, entering a correction phase within a descending channel.
Main Indicators
RSI (14): Values reported between ~20-31 on daily (clear oversold levels, RSI <30 indicates strongly negative momentum and possible technical rebound). In some shorter time frames (1h/4h) it rises to ~50-58 (neutral to slight buy).
MACD: Negative MACD line (e.g. -1.430 to -2.758 in reports), histogram in the red zone → dominant bearish momentum, but possible divergences in oversold could anticipate a short reversal.
Moving Averages: Strong predominance of selling (0-2 buys vs. 10-12 sells in exponential and simple MAs). Price below EMA20/50/200 in most timeframes.
Others: Stochastic and StochRSI show oversold in the short term; volume has increased on drops (indicating potential capitulation).
Main Scenario (High Probability) Corrective correction within the post-halving cycle/major bullish market. The current drop seems driven by profit-taking, thin liquidity, and absence of immediate strong bullish catalysts. Possible last dip towards $63,000-$70,000 before accumulation and recovery towards $90,000+ (defended buyer zones). Alternative Scenario (Technical Rebound) RSI at extreme oversold + possible bullish divergence in MACD could generate a strong rebound towards $88,000-$95,000 if it stays above $74,000. February has historically been positive for BTC (average +14%), which supports a recovery if key supports are not broken. Recommendation
Short term (days): Bearish caution, but watch for oversold for contrary entries at strong supports.
Medium term (weeks/months): Bearish structure unless it recovers $90,000+. Accumulation opportunity on dips if a base at $70k-$75k is confirmed.
Risk: High volatility due to thin liquidity; adjusted stops recommended.
This analysis is based on aggregated data from sources like TradingView, Investing.com, FXStreet, and recent on-chain reports. The crypto market is highly volatile; combine with fundamental analysis and risk management.
