Yesterday I said that SKHY spot large-lot net inflows were zero, so I wouldn’t chase longs. Today the price was smashed from above 162 down to 153.87, down 5.73% over 24 hours. What truly made me change my mind isn’t the percentage drop—it’s the composition of this decline. Behind the four-hour sequence of five yin candles and one yang candle, open interest crashed 22.45% in a single day, falling from 146 million to 113 million. This isn’t fresh shorting entering the market; it’s leveraged longs getting collectively liquidated, with the selling pressure piled up by the cleanouts.
The hardest evidence is this: as price moves downward, the proportion of longs in the whale accounts actually increases by 3.48%, and the proportion of long positions increases by 4.61%. Now whale accounts are 61.85% long, higher than the 58.45% across the entire market. The funding rate has gone to zero—no one is chasing longs, and no one is rushing to buy at the top for a squeeze. The floating supply has just been washed out.
Spot large-lot net inflows are still zero. This move is a post-deleveraging repair, not a rally driven by incoming capital. Don’t expect the rebound height to be too great.
My stance: Going long now, betting on a rebound after the liquidations have cleared. The first target is to retake the 50-day moving average area around 155, then try the prior high range/platform at 157–160.
Conditions for reversal: a breakdown of the 151.17 low with increased volume, or whale long percentage turning downward and open interest swelling again—then it wouldn’t be “clearing”; it would be shorts taking over. At that point, long positions should stop out immediately.
#skhy $SKHY
The hardest evidence is this: as price moves downward, the proportion of longs in the whale accounts actually increases by 3.48%, and the proportion of long positions increases by 4.61%. Now whale accounts are 61.85% long, higher than the 58.45% across the entire market. The funding rate has gone to zero—no one is chasing longs, and no one is rushing to buy at the top for a squeeze. The floating supply has just been washed out.
Spot large-lot net inflows are still zero. This move is a post-deleveraging repair, not a rally driven by incoming capital. Don’t expect the rebound height to be too great.
My stance: Going long now, betting on a rebound after the liquidations have cleared. The first target is to retake the 50-day moving average area around 155, then try the prior high range/platform at 157–160.
Conditions for reversal: a breakdown of the 151.17 low with increased volume, or whale long percentage turning downward and open interest swelling again—then it wouldn’t be “clearing”; it would be shorts taking over. At that point, long positions should stop out immediately.
#skhy $SKHY
