The order book shows buy orders that are more than 5 times the amount—looks like someone is desperately taking in inventory. When you flip to the active trades, the most recent 100 spot sell orders are five times the buy orders—this wall is put up for show; whoever is truly placing orders is quietly dumping out.
In the past three hours, the spot ledger is still a net inflow of 50 million. Big orders have accumulated real money. Don’t rush—at the very last 15 minutes, the big orders shifted from inflow to outflow, net outflow of 200,000. Money flows on the surface, while deeper layers are moving. The play of “catching the falling price” is being done by mid-range retail investors as the bag holders, while the big players are the ones quietly exiting.
On the contracts side, it’s even more straightforward: when price falls and open interest shrinks, long positions line up to accept losses. The funding rate has already turned negative—short sellers don’t even have to pay protection fees. Where would any short-squeeze fuel come from? The accounts of large holders are still secretly reducing positions, and the long-to-short leverage ratio collapsed by 36% in half a day.
Both moving average lines are pressing down overhead; the MACD is weakening and the MFI is sprawled on the floor. In the last 24 hours, it’s cut by 30%, and from the peak it has already retraced 40%. Even the rebound couldn’t build enough momentum to take the first real breath. This isn’t a bottom—this is catching a falling knife at a high level.
The weaker the rebound, the more it proves that distribution hasn’t finished. To short, first wash out the longs’ positions that are being held stubbornly. The rebound is just handing ammunition to the shorts—only once it breaks below the previous low does the real show begin. #tut $TUT
In the past three hours, the spot ledger is still a net inflow of 50 million. Big orders have accumulated real money. Don’t rush—at the very last 15 minutes, the big orders shifted from inflow to outflow, net outflow of 200,000. Money flows on the surface, while deeper layers are moving. The play of “catching the falling price” is being done by mid-range retail investors as the bag holders, while the big players are the ones quietly exiting.
On the contracts side, it’s even more straightforward: when price falls and open interest shrinks, long positions line up to accept losses. The funding rate has already turned negative—short sellers don’t even have to pay protection fees. Where would any short-squeeze fuel come from? The accounts of large holders are still secretly reducing positions, and the long-to-short leverage ratio collapsed by 36% in half a day.
Both moving average lines are pressing down overhead; the MACD is weakening and the MFI is sprawled on the floor. In the last 24 hours, it’s cut by 30%, and from the peak it has already retraced 40%. Even the rebound couldn’t build enough momentum to take the first real breath. This isn’t a bottom—this is catching a falling knife at a high level.
The weaker the rebound, the more it proves that distribution hasn’t finished. To short, first wash out the longs’ positions that are being held stubbornly. The rebound is just handing ammunition to the shorts—only once it breaks below the previous low does the real show begin. #tut $TUT
