XAU reached 4661; within 24 hours’ high of 4684, it’s only one step away. However, over the course of a day, the derivatives market has been pulling money out—open interest fell 1.11% in a day, and in the last 7 hours it shrank another 2.37%. Price is pushing toward new highs, while open interest is dropping. This is the most noteworthy set of contradictions.
Even more tangled is the trading: in the last 7 hours, the aggressive buy volume surged by 127%, and buy orders accounted for 63.8%. With buying this aggressive, open interest actually shrank. These orders are not newly opened long positions; they’re short-covering settlement orders. The rally pushed out by the covering is fueled by borrowed momentum—when the covering stops, the fire goes out.
With a fee rate of 0.00154%, it’s hovering near zero. Leveraged long positions won’t even pay a 1-point premium—no one is willing to add to positions at this level. The spot buy wall at 46x can only说明 that someone below is absorbing; it doesn’t prove anyone above is lifting prices.
So I stand with the shorts at this point: my initial targets are the moving-average zone of 4650–4657; if price breaks below and runs downward, it’ll head toward 4600. If open interest turns down and surges on the upside, and price breaks 4684 with volume, that would mean new money is entering—I’ll immediately switch to going long. #xau $XAU
Even more tangled is the trading: in the last 7 hours, the aggressive buy volume surged by 127%, and buy orders accounted for 63.8%. With buying this aggressive, open interest actually shrank. These orders are not newly opened long positions; they’re short-covering settlement orders. The rally pushed out by the covering is fueled by borrowed momentum—when the covering stops, the fire goes out.
With a fee rate of 0.00154%, it’s hovering near zero. Leveraged long positions won’t even pay a 1-point premium—no one is willing to add to positions at this level. The spot buy wall at 46x can only说明 that someone below is absorbing; it doesn’t prove anyone above is lifting prices.
So I stand with the shorts at this point: my initial targets are the moving-average zone of 4650–4657; if price breaks below and runs downward, it’ll head toward 4600. If open interest turns down and surges on the upside, and price breaks 4684 with volume, that would mean new money is entering—I’ll immediately switch to going long. #xau $XAU
