Price drops 7.27% in 24 hours. Dual moving averages are pressing down overhead; in the last four hours, 4 out of 6 K-lines closed bearish. The daily chart shows one big bearish candle with no room for negotiation—yet on the contract side it’s a buying frenzy: the share of主动 orders (active buy orders) is 61%, trading volume spiked 87% over seven hours, and whale long positions make up 70.9% with more being added.
This kind of “buy more as it drops” is most afraid of not being able to catch the falling price. With positions up 4.32% by the daily count, the price is still down 7.27%. Newly entered leveraged longs are trapped halfway through the decline. Zoom in to the most recent seven hours: positions actually shrank by 2.44%—those fierce buy orders aren’t lifting the price; they’re taking delivery for longs that are leaving and getting liquidated.
With fees clinging to the zero line, there isn’t even enough premium to be paid. With so many longs, they only have gambling, not conviction. My view is bearish. The ever-thickening layer of long positions around 1180 is the fuse for the next downward push. Once the buy-side momentum is drained—active buy share falls and whale longs start to retreat—the price should head below the 1158 level to find a bottom.
To invalidate this bearish setup, only three things can happen at the same time: price must reclaim and stand above MA50 (around 1190), buy volume truly pushes it up, and the funding rate turns positive. Only then does it indicate that the bids are truly building a position. Until then, every attempt to snap back during the selloff is just propping up the next round of decline. #skhynix $SKHYNIX
This kind of “buy more as it drops” is most afraid of not being able to catch the falling price. With positions up 4.32% by the daily count, the price is still down 7.27%. Newly entered leveraged longs are trapped halfway through the decline. Zoom in to the most recent seven hours: positions actually shrank by 2.44%—those fierce buy orders aren’t lifting the price; they’re taking delivery for longs that are leaving and getting liquidated.
With fees clinging to the zero line, there isn’t even enough premium to be paid. With so many longs, they only have gambling, not conviction. My view is bearish. The ever-thickening layer of long positions around 1180 is the fuse for the next downward push. Once the buy-side momentum is drained—active buy share falls and whale longs start to retreat—the price should head below the 1158 level to find a bottom.
To invalidate this bearish setup, only three things can happen at the same time: price must reclaim and stand above MA50 (around 1190), buy volume truly pushes it up, and the funding rate turns positive. Only then does it indicate that the bids are truly building a position. Until then, every attempt to snap back during the selloff is just propping up the next round of decline. #skhynix $SKHYNIX
