Tonight Besant’s speech: I think it’s basically a “hawkish” line in words, but in reality the sanctions measures have been softened; that also seems to match expectations. There are a few points to note.
1. The so-called harshest sanctions in history: basically you can see they were meant to cover banks including those in China, large refineries, cutting off the dollar system for third-country financial institutions, the explicitly warned timeline for withdrawals related to Iran, and secondary sanctions for Iran’s oil purchasers—but tonight most of that wasn’t clearly spelled out.
2. In what Besant announced: 60 Iran-related entities, five potential secondary-sanctions industries, the withdrawal deadline for third countries, and the threat of withdrawing from the dollar system—all were mentioned in the framework. It sounds tough, but there are no real details.
3. The 60 Iran-related entities aren’t clearly specified; the content of the secondary sanctions is also unclear. There was no hard deadline set for third countries to withdraw. It’s more like giving third countries time and opportunities for private discussions—leaving a window for dialogue.
4. The speech mentioned that China won’t be spared. But when reporters asked questions related to China, Besant basically avoided them. I even didn’t see him mention, when discussing financial institutions that are systemically important to the China system, any of those being brought up in the context of the dollar system.
5. Overall, tonight’s Besant “sanctions against Iran” look more like a round of deterrence than a true policy rollout. So overall, compared with the tone, I think it’s even more softened—an alternative “Taco” from Trump.
Next, what should we watch?
a. Besant said that within a week, a large financial institution will be sanctioned—let’s see which one it turns out to be.
b. For large institutions, focus on the Iran banking system, the UAE, Turkey, and third-country financial institutions, as well as China’s smaller-to-mid-sized financial institutions and systemically important large Chinese banks.
c. Did the U.S. clearly set a deadline for withdrawing economic ties with Iran? Not setting a hard deadline means there’s a lot of room for negotiation.
d. For China: how will Iran respond to tonight’s Besant speech, especially whether Iran upgrades its shipping war in the Strait of Hormuz again.
Overall, tonight’s sanctions plan from Besant is basically a softening signal. The main reason has already been mentioned earlier: #美国财政部将回购上限翻倍至40亿美元
1. The so-called harshest sanctions in history: basically you can see they were meant to cover banks including those in China, large refineries, cutting off the dollar system for third-country financial institutions, the explicitly warned timeline for withdrawals related to Iran, and secondary sanctions for Iran’s oil purchasers—but tonight most of that wasn’t clearly spelled out.
2. In what Besant announced: 60 Iran-related entities, five potential secondary-sanctions industries, the withdrawal deadline for third countries, and the threat of withdrawing from the dollar system—all were mentioned in the framework. It sounds tough, but there are no real details.
3. The 60 Iran-related entities aren’t clearly specified; the content of the secondary sanctions is also unclear. There was no hard deadline set for third countries to withdraw. It’s more like giving third countries time and opportunities for private discussions—leaving a window for dialogue.
4. The speech mentioned that China won’t be spared. But when reporters asked questions related to China, Besant basically avoided them. I even didn’t see him mention, when discussing financial institutions that are systemically important to the China system, any of those being brought up in the context of the dollar system.
5. Overall, tonight’s Besant “sanctions against Iran” look more like a round of deterrence than a true policy rollout. So overall, compared with the tone, I think it’s even more softened—an alternative “Taco” from Trump.
Next, what should we watch?
a. Besant said that within a week, a large financial institution will be sanctioned—let’s see which one it turns out to be.
b. For large institutions, focus on the Iran banking system, the UAE, Turkey, and third-country financial institutions, as well as China’s smaller-to-mid-sized financial institutions and systemically important large Chinese banks.
c. Did the U.S. clearly set a deadline for withdrawing economic ties with Iran? Not setting a hard deadline means there’s a lot of room for negotiation.
d. For China: how will Iran respond to tonight’s Besant speech, especially whether Iran upgrades its shipping war in the Strait of Hormuz again.
Overall, tonight’s sanctions plan from Besant is basically a softening signal. The main reason has already been mentioned earlier: #美国财政部将回购上限翻倍至40亿美元
