Big Cousin wants to say: will there be another massive crash next?
Could this possibly trigger a financial crisis—wiping the market clean—and then with subsequent choppy consolidation, set things up for a bull market?
What’s already appeared is that global long-term bonds are being collectively sold off:
• The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 5.33%, the highest since 2007; bond prices have fallen sharply
• The long-term government bond yields in Japan, the UK, and Germany have all spiked in sync—pressure from a double hit to both stocks and bonds is already showing
1. The U.S. federal budget deficit has exploded: U.S. Treasuries have broken through $40 trillion. Annual interest payments are over $1.2 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. It keeps pumping new bonds into the market. The market can’t absorb them—so only with higher yields will buyers be willing.
2. Inflation stickiness: rate-cut expectations keep getting pushed back again and again. Even the market has started to reprice “another rate hike,” with the period of high interest rates lasting far longer than previously expected.
3. Large-scale debt financing by AI companies: corporate bonds and government bonds are competing for limited funds in the market, further pushing up long-end yields. $BTC
Could this possibly trigger a financial crisis—wiping the market clean—and then with subsequent choppy consolidation, set things up for a bull market?
What’s already appeared is that global long-term bonds are being collectively sold off:
• The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 5.33%, the highest since 2007; bond prices have fallen sharply
• The long-term government bond yields in Japan, the UK, and Germany have all spiked in sync—pressure from a double hit to both stocks and bonds is already showing
1. The U.S. federal budget deficit has exploded: U.S. Treasuries have broken through $40 trillion. Annual interest payments are over $1.2 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. It keeps pumping new bonds into the market. The market can’t absorb them—so only with higher yields will buyers be willing.
2. Inflation stickiness: rate-cut expectations keep getting pushed back again and again. Even the market has started to reprice “another rate hike,” with the period of high interest rates lasting far longer than previously expected.
3. Large-scale debt financing by AI companies: corporate bonds and government bonds are competing for limited funds in the market, further pushing up long-end yields. $BTC
