$ONG Late-night another round of a bullish “surrender”行情.
In the last 15 minutes, it’s down 2.25%, yet volume has surged to 2.2 times the normal level—whoever is dumping is very determined. More importantly, the contract open interest (OI) is shrinking rapidly: -1.69% in 15 minutes, -2.38% in 1 hour. Within just over an hour, roughly 600k U of notional positions have been withdrawn. The shorts likely aren’t adding—this looks purely like longs cutting losses and exiting. Active sell pressure dominates (buy/sell ratio 0.44, close to one-sided).
This selloff is landing right around the historical extreme range. The abnormal percentile of the entire pool is at 98.6%, ranking 4th. It has been confirmed across multiple consecutive cycles, so it’s not some fleeting false signal. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume is over 46 million U. Given this scale, the move is real and tangible volatility.
In this kind of structure, if OI continues to fall while price can’t break down further and starts to stabilize, a rebound becomes more likely. But if active sell orders keep pressing down, then this is still an unfinished grind lower. Don’t rush to bottom-pick—wait for the long/short forces to rebalance first.
In the last 15 minutes, it’s down 2.25%, yet volume has surged to 2.2 times the normal level—whoever is dumping is very determined. More importantly, the contract open interest (OI) is shrinking rapidly: -1.69% in 15 minutes, -2.38% in 1 hour. Within just over an hour, roughly 600k U of notional positions have been withdrawn. The shorts likely aren’t adding—this looks purely like longs cutting losses and exiting. Active sell pressure dominates (buy/sell ratio 0.44, close to one-sided).
This selloff is landing right around the historical extreme range. The abnormal percentile of the entire pool is at 98.6%, ranking 4th. It has been confirmed across multiple consecutive cycles, so it’s not some fleeting false signal. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume is over 46 million U. Given this scale, the move is real and tangible volatility.
In this kind of structure, if OI continues to fall while price can’t break down further and starts to stabilize, a rebound becomes more likely. But if active sell orders keep pressing down, then this is still an unfinished grind lower. Don’t rush to bottom-pick—wait for the long/short forces to rebalance first.
