To be honest, when the sell side appears, the $LITE order-book structure has already given us the answer. No matter how fierce that rally wave in the optical module was, the pullback hurts just as much—that’s the market settling accounts. I watched the chart all day; $LITE didn’t fall the hardest today, but that’s precisely why this kind of “fell less” stock is the most dangerous. The momentum to play catch-up is still building. Don’t rush to catch a flying knife. My bearish core logic is simple: mean reversion after divergence in volume and price.
The prior gains of the optical module leaders were too exaggerated. Now the whole sector is entering a withdrawal phase, and funds are exiting in an orderly manner—not panic stampede. For something like $LITE , which followed the rally earlier but didn’t fully release selling pressure, it becomes a great target in the eyes of the shorts. On the chart, it’s clear: overhead trapped supply is piled up heavily. Every time it rebounds, it comes with shrinking volume, which shows the bulls haven’t organized any effective resistance at all. The real support level below is still far away. My judgment is that this downswing hasn’t finished yet. There may be a technical rebound in the middle, but that will be an opportunity for heavy positions to trim—not a reason for us to enter.
When you calculate the risk-reward ratio, shorting from this level is far more comfortable than going long. Of course, the market is always full of uncertainty. If one day it breaks out on high volume and forms a long lower shadow, I’ll reassess the structure. But at least for now, I don’t see any signals of a bottoming out. In the $LITE short camp, I choose to join.
Widen your view of the mountains and seas, and observe the market’s minute details.
Travel alongside Uncle Xiong, and witness gains and losses unfold beneath the heavens.
#LITE
Click below to trade 👇
The prior gains of the optical module leaders were too exaggerated. Now the whole sector is entering a withdrawal phase, and funds are exiting in an orderly manner—not panic stampede. For something like $LITE , which followed the rally earlier but didn’t fully release selling pressure, it becomes a great target in the eyes of the shorts. On the chart, it’s clear: overhead trapped supply is piled up heavily. Every time it rebounds, it comes with shrinking volume, which shows the bulls haven’t organized any effective resistance at all. The real support level below is still far away. My judgment is that this downswing hasn’t finished yet. There may be a technical rebound in the middle, but that will be an opportunity for heavy positions to trim—not a reason for us to enter.
When you calculate the risk-reward ratio, shorting from this level is far more comfortable than going long. Of course, the market is always full of uncertainty. If one day it breaks out on high volume and forms a long lower shadow, I’ll reassess the structure. But at least for now, I don’t see any signals of a bottoming out. In the $LITE short camp, I choose to join.
Widen your view of the mountains and seas, and observe the market’s minute details.
Travel alongside Uncle Xiong, and witness gains and losses unfold beneath the heavens.
#LITE
Click below to trade 👇