Ripple unlocked approximately 1 billion XRP on February 1, continuing its monthly schedule of token releases.
The scheduled unlock came after a weak close for XRP in January, when the token fell more than 10%. Selling pressure continued into the new month, with prices dropping further in line with the overall market decline.
Ripple releases 1 billion XRP as part of its escrow program
According to on-chain data, the unlocks were divided into four transfers of 100 million, 400 million, 100 million, and 400 million XRP, with a combined value of approximately 1.6 billion dollars at the time of execution.
Ripple's monthly unlocks are part of a structured supply management mechanism, rather than an unexpected market event. Introduced in 2017, the system placed 55 billion XRP under escrow, allowing up to 1 billion XRP to be released each month in a transparent and predictable manner.
Under this system, Ripple normally re-locks between 60% and 80% of the unlocked tokens, keeping only a portion for operational expenses or liquidity needs. This pattern was repeated this month.
Whale Alert reported that Ripple re-locked 700 million XRP in escrow in two separate transactions, one of 400 million and another of 300 million XRP, with a combined value of approximately $1.09 billion. As a result, 300 million XRP net remains unlocked after the operation.
XRP falls to October lows amid a massive sell-off in the crypto market
Historically, these monthly escrow movements have had a limited immediate impact on the market. However, XRP has been under pressure as overall risk appetite decreased in the market.
Data from BeInCrypto Markets showed that the price of XRP plummeted 10.6% in January, with the price dropping to $1.50, marking its lowest level since the flash crash in October.
Just two days after starting February, XRP has already dropped more than 6%, following the overall market decline that has taken Bitcoin and Ethereum to multi-month lows. At the time of writing this note, XRP was trading at $1.57, down nearly 5% in the last 24 hours.
Amid the current decline, analysts remain divided on whether a recovery or further declines are more likely. One analyst noted that XRP could be repeating a long-term cycle seen before. This suggests that the next big rally could still take several years.
According to the analysis, XRP has historically gone through extended phases of consolidation before having a significant breakout later in the cycle.
"It is following the same patterns as all previous cycles. The next pump won’t be until Q4 of 2028. $8–$10+," the analyst wrote.
Another analyst said that the price of XRP is currently consolidating within a "re-accumulation phase," which could set the stage for a continuation on a longer time frame.
Objectives in doubt
Meanwhile, comments from David Schwartz, one of the leading architects of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), have cast doubt on the more optimistic price targets that tend to circulate within XRP communities.
"While I don’t think it’s likely, I also didn’t believe XRP would ever reach $0.25. I started selling XRP at $0.10 because it seemed crazy to me. I remember when Bitcoin reaching $100 seemed like an impossible dream," he wrote.
Schwartz argued that if rational investors believed XRP had a 10% chance of reaching $100 in a few years, the token would not remain at current levels. In his opinion, these investors would avoid selling below $10 and would prefer to accumulate rapidly until the available supply is consumed.
"The fact that the current trading price is well below $10 shows that not many people really think there’s a 10% chance of it reaching $100 in a few years, and that they have enough confidence to invest their money in it. So anyone who says otherwise is not telling the truth," he stated.
This perspective contrasts sharply with common narratives in the crypto community, where bullish projections are often spread. The argument suggests that the market price may better represent the consensus opinion than the more optimistic predictions on social media.