$BTC has risen 24%, yet leverage is actually dropping—I’m instead less afraid than I was a few days ago.
When this move happened last week, I also initially took it as a typical short squeeze: once the shorts got liquidated, the longs kept adding leverage, pushing the price higher and higher.
But today I pulled up the data, and the situation looks different.
$BTC futures open interest fell from about 762,000 BTC as of August 18 to around 715,000 BTC now—already the lowest level in two months.
Meanwhile, during the same period, BTC climbed from below $63,000 all the way to around $78,000.
Prices are up, but leverage is down.
At the very least, this suggests that it’s not yet a group of people crazily going long and hard-pushing the price higher.
Last week, although more than $3 billion of shorts were wiped out, after they were cleared, leverage didn’t immediately pile back on.
So I’m not as急 to guess whether $80,000 can break.
What I want to see is: if $BTC keeps rising, will open interest suddenly start surging upward too?
If leverage quickly comes back, I’ll become cautious again; if the price can hold steady and open interest stays low, then this move may be more solid than I originally thought.
#Bitcoin #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点
When this move happened last week, I also initially took it as a typical short squeeze: once the shorts got liquidated, the longs kept adding leverage, pushing the price higher and higher.
But today I pulled up the data, and the situation looks different.
$BTC futures open interest fell from about 762,000 BTC as of August 18 to around 715,000 BTC now—already the lowest level in two months.
Meanwhile, during the same period, BTC climbed from below $63,000 all the way to around $78,000.
Prices are up, but leverage is down.
At the very least, this suggests that it’s not yet a group of people crazily going long and hard-pushing the price higher.
Last week, although more than $3 billion of shorts were wiped out, after they were cleared, leverage didn’t immediately pile back on.
So I’m not as急 to guess whether $80,000 can break.
What I want to see is: if $BTC keeps rising, will open interest suddenly start surging upward too?
If leverage quickly comes back, I’ll become cautious again; if the price can hold steady and open interest stays low, then this move may be more solid than I originally thought.
#Bitcoin #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点