Bitcoin • Crypto/DeFi • Macro • AI • YouTube & Business
Bitcoin remains strong near US$78k, but the market is now entering a week in which macro and AI could determine whether this move continues. Jackson Hole, U.S. yields, and Nvidia are the three big triggers.
1. ₿ Bitcoin has the second best week since 2021 — and US$2.62 billion flows into crypto products
Bitcoin trades today in the range of US$77.6k, after rising 23.6% last week, moving from approximately US$62k to touching US$79.5k. It was the second best week for BTC since February 2021.
The most important detail is capital entering the market: crypto investment products received approximately $2.62 billion, the largest flow since October 2025. Ether rose even more than Bitcoin, about 31.3% for the week.
Another fuel was the dollar. The DXY fell to near 98.9, below its 200-day average, while Treasury bond buybacks helped ease yields.
Why it matters: the current rise has three components: institutional demand, improved liquidity, and a technical breakout. This is healthier than a rally sustained only by shorts being liquidated.
My take: I wouldn’t be fixated on “when it hits $80K”. The real test is BTC managing to trade for a few days between $75–80K without giving back the move, while the ETFs keep receiving capital.
Opportunity: consolidation followed by a new expansion in flow could open a second leg up.
Risk: FOMO and leverage increasing too much right after +23% in a week.
2. 🇺🇸 Jackson Hole has become the week’s most important macro event
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will give his first main speech at Jackson Hole on Friday as head of the central bank. And the timing is delicate: inflation remains above target, long yields have risen sharply, and the market still doesn’t know how far the Fed is willing to tighten monetary policy.
The July minutes showed concern among several members that if the Fed waits too long, it may later be forced to raise rates more aggressively. At the same time, recent activity and employment indicators have cooled.
There’s also a structural development: the Treasury itself is intervening more actively in the debt market through long bond buybacks. This means that now the Fed and the Treasury can influence different parts of the yield curve at the same time.
For Bitcoin, I would set up this map:
Warsh hawkish → yields ↑ → dollar ↑ → pressure on BTC
Moderate Warsh + yields ↓ → liquidity improves → BTC gains room
Why it matters: after a 23% jump, any macro surprise has the ability to cause a big move because the market is already stretched.
Opportunity: yields falling while Bitcoin holds its current structure.
Risk: Jackson Hole reintroducing explicitly the possibility of rate hikes in September.