As of February 2, 2026, the crypto community held its breath. Coinglass data confirmed the disappointing fact: Bitcoin closed January in the red, marking the fourth consecutive 'red' month (October, November, December 2025, and January 2026).
This is a historical anomaly that occurs very rarely and always precedes major changes. Letโs figure out why this is important and whether we are really expecting a 'green' February.
๐ Historical context: When has this happened before?
Throughout the entire history of BTC, four or more months of consecutive declines have only occurred twice:
1. 2014: During a prolonged bear market following the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange.
2. 2018: After the legendary rally of 2017 ended and the start of the 'crypto winter'.
Today we see a repetition of this scenario. However, there is a significant difference: in 2026, the market is much deeper, and the reasons for the decline are not internal industry issues but a macroeconomic storm: the threat of a shutdown in the US, the appointment of Kevin Warsh to the Fed, and tensions around Iran.
๐ข Why should February become 'green'?
There is a pattern that traders call the 'spring effect'. When the market is oversold for four months, it accumulates colossal potential for a rebound.
Statistics: Historically, after a 'red' January, February has closed positively 85% of the time. The average return for February over the last 12 years is about +12โ14%.
Cyclicality: In February, new liquidity often appears after institutions finish reviewing portfolios at the beginning of the year.
The 'bottom' factor: Right now, we are seeing signs of active buying at the level of $75,000 โ $77,000. 'Whales' are using crowd fear (the fear index has dropped to 15 โ 'Extreme Panic') to accumulate positions before the spring rally.
๐๏ธ Scenarios for February 2026
| Optimistic (Bullish) | 65% | $93,000 โ $95,000 | Quick resolution of the US budget issue and easing of Trump's rhetoric. |
| Consolidation (Neutral) | 25% | $82,000 โ $88,000 | The market is 'digesting' news about the Fed, and prices are moving sideways. |
| Pessimistic (Bearish) | 10% | $69,000 โ $71,000 | Full shutdown and the beginning of military conflict in the Middle East. |
We are currently witnessing a classic 'market cleansing'. Four months of decline have knocked out random players and margin long positions.
If history repeats itself, February will become a month of significant reversal. Technically, we have unclosed gaps at levels $89,300 and $93,000, which act as magnets for the price.
