The weekly inflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF this time is the strongest since October 2025, directly confirming that the ongoing release of demand for Bitcoin allocation through current compliant channels remains strong.
Last week, the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in total recorded a net inflow of $1.92 billion. During the same period, the Bitcoin price briefly broke above the $78,000 level. The timing of the fund inflows largely matched the points at which prices broke through, with no obvious price divergence. This is also the first time since October 2025 that the ETF’s weekly inflow has approached the $2 billion mark.
In terms of capital characteristics, this round of inflows is mainly driven by institutional allocation demand. Recently, the Fed’s dovish signals and easing pressures on the valuation of risk assets from lower U.S. inflation data have, together with the long-term narrative of supply contraction after Bitcoin’s halving, encouraged traditional funds to increase their Bitcoin holdings via compliant ETF channels. Products from leading institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity account for more than 70% of the inflow. In addition, the recent broad strength of U.S. tech stocks also helped lift risk appetite; as a high-beta risk asset, Bitcoin naturally became one of the targets for incremental allocation.
From the perspective of market structure, spot Bitcoin ETFs have already become an important link between US stock market risk assets and the crypto market. The magnitude of this round of inflows has reached a new record high in this cycle, which also implies that US institutional investors’ Bitcoin allocation positions are still increasing. In the past two weeks, the cumulative inflow into ETFs has already exceeded $3 billion, equivalent to 0.15% of Bitcoin’s market value—providing fairly clear support to the market. Going forward, changes in ETF holdings will become one of the core indicators for judging Bitcoin’s short-term price trend. If the weekly inflow scale can remain above $1 billion, the probability of Bitcoin breaking the previous high would increase significantly.
However, the sustainability of this inflow trend still needs to be verified. If Bitcoin’s price subsequently falls below the $75,000 support level, or if the Federal Reserve again releases hawkish rate-hike signals, ETF inflow momentum could quickly slow down, or even turn into a situation of net outflows in a single week. Only if Bitcoin holds above $78,000 and macro liquidity does not tighten beyond expectations can the trend of this cycle’s record-high inflows continue. If a black swan event occurs—such as a change in regulatory policy or a significant increase in ETF fees—it would also disrupt the current inflow pace.