$UNITREE is about to be cut in half; has the “toy factory” label really been sealed for good?
At first I really thought, “He’s different.”
But it turns out he was still fooled...
Once it gets hyped, they really dare to put the expected outlook for the next few years all in one day!
Under normal circumstances, if a company grows 30% per year, it might take around 7 years to achieve several-fold growth; with 50% growth, it still takes about 5 years. Even if growth reaches 80%, it would require at least 3 years.
But once these popular themes catch the attention of capital, they can use up the projected future growth of several years in a single day.
For example, if overclocking is pushed to 1100, that corresponds to a market value of over 400 billion.
If Unitree also overclocks to 1100, that would be over 4 trillion in market value—10x higher.
The issue is: net profit in the first half is only 270 million, yet it corresponds to a market value of over 4 trillion. By calculation, the PE is close to 800x.
The market can give a premium valuation to high-quality companies, and it can tolerate a certain level of bubble. But to price in growth for many years in advance—before even the realization path has been carried out—and to hype the valuation to the sky first? That kind of play really is a bit too much.
When Moer Muxi just listed last year, the price range of 600–800 already made many people feel it was outrageous.
Turns out the market’s valuation imagination for hot tech and robotics themes has been pushed to a brand-new level.
So high that even I, TM, got fooled.
Chinese people are still too something, honestly!
At first I really thought, “He’s different.”
But it turns out he was still fooled...
Once it gets hyped, they really dare to put the expected outlook for the next few years all in one day!
Under normal circumstances, if a company grows 30% per year, it might take around 7 years to achieve several-fold growth; with 50% growth, it still takes about 5 years. Even if growth reaches 80%, it would require at least 3 years.
But once these popular themes catch the attention of capital, they can use up the projected future growth of several years in a single day.
For example, if overclocking is pushed to 1100, that corresponds to a market value of over 400 billion.
If Unitree also overclocks to 1100, that would be over 4 trillion in market value—10x higher.
The issue is: net profit in the first half is only 270 million, yet it corresponds to a market value of over 4 trillion. By calculation, the PE is close to 800x.
The market can give a premium valuation to high-quality companies, and it can tolerate a certain level of bubble. But to price in growth for many years in advance—before even the realization path has been carried out—and to hype the valuation to the sky first? That kind of play really is a bit too much.
When Moer Muxi just listed last year, the price range of 600–800 already made many people feel it was outrageous.
Turns out the market’s valuation imagination for hot tech and robotics themes has been pushed to a brand-new level.
So high that even I, TM, got fooled.
Chinese people are still too something, honestly!
