Pop Mart $POPMART : This half-year report isn’t actually bad when you look purely at the numbers—revenue was 17.173 billion RMB, up 23.8% year-on-year; net profit was 5.038 billion RMB, up 10.1%. By the standards of most companies, that’s respectable. But this time, the market’s appetite was whetted too high. When expectations weren’t met, the trading session immediately turned—its stock price fell more than 8% in a single day, and it’s already been cut in half compared with its historical peak. “Tragic” isn’t an exaggeration.
But the deeper you dig, the more tangled the signals become. On one side, there are the cooling voices: Wang Ning is candid himself, openly admitting that last year’s surge had “an element of luck.” The revenue contribution from #LABUBU is also declining. Even Goldman Sachs is directly pouring cold water, pointing to “weak demand and high inventory.” On the other side, offline is completely the opposite: Star Man’s new products sell out instantly, and secondhand resellers are pricing at a 13x premium. Even after going around the stores, Liang Yongping commented that “business is unbelievably good.” So should we trust the financial statements or the storefronts? It’s easy for outsiders to feel confused. #POPmart
What’s interesting is that while Wang Ning admits “luck,” he also lays out a share buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion RMB. Buying back with real money at least suggests the boss has confidence in the outlook—and it also serves as a reassurance to the market.
Still, two hurdles are right there: first, the growth rate is slowing; second, inventory buildup. More seriously, it’s the “post-LABUBU era”—after the dividend from a mega-IP is consumed, whether the company can nurture the next breakout hit will ultimately determine the fate of this stock. For now, Star Man seems like a hint of what’s to come.
#泡泡玛特 Today the stock rebounded 4%, closing at HK$155. Sentiment is gradually recovering. But wanting it to climb back to the highs in one go is probably far from easy.
But the deeper you dig, the more tangled the signals become. On one side, there are the cooling voices: Wang Ning is candid himself, openly admitting that last year’s surge had “an element of luck.” The revenue contribution from #LABUBU is also declining. Even Goldman Sachs is directly pouring cold water, pointing to “weak demand and high inventory.” On the other side, offline is completely the opposite: Star Man’s new products sell out instantly, and secondhand resellers are pricing at a 13x premium. Even after going around the stores, Liang Yongping commented that “business is unbelievably good.” So should we trust the financial statements or the storefronts? It’s easy for outsiders to feel confused. #POPmart
What’s interesting is that while Wang Ning admits “luck,” he also lays out a share buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion RMB. Buying back with real money at least suggests the boss has confidence in the outlook—and it also serves as a reassurance to the market.
Still, two hurdles are right there: first, the growth rate is slowing; second, inventory buildup. More seriously, it’s the “post-LABUBU era”—after the dividend from a mega-IP is consumed, whether the company can nurture the next breakout hit will ultimately determine the fate of this stock. For now, Star Man seems like a hint of what’s to come.
#泡泡玛特 Today the stock rebounded 4%, closing at HK$155. Sentiment is gradually recovering. But wanting it to climb back to the highs in one go is probably far from easy.