$XAU The gold shop owner is among the people nationwide who least want the gold price to rise. On the surface, if the gold price goes up, their personal wealth goes up too—but since you’re doing business, the money you make is the processing fee. What you’re counting on is fast turnover: quick in, quick out, so you can earn.

Back then, with 1 million, you could buy 3 kg of gold. If you make 20,000 per kg, then 1 million could net you 60,000. But now, with 1 million you can only get 1 kg. Your profit is down to just 20,000. And with gold prices skyrocketing, fewer people want to buy gold—and the quantities they buy shrink too. That means the inventory on your shelves can’t turn over. But your monthly expenses are fixed. If you don’t sell through your inventory, you’re losing money. Better to close shop. If you do sell inventory, even though gold prices have risen, your inventory is shrinking. Running the business any further just doesn’t make sense. Better to close.

So compared to the time during COVID, gold shops today have at least one-third fewer outlets. A lot of people are also mixing up trading raw gold materials and running gold shops—these are two different groups. There’s some overlap and people cross over, but not strictly in the traditional sense. In a broad way, it’s a relationship between upstream and downstream.

As for whether gold-price increases mean gold shops make money—when business for gold shops was at its hottest, it was from 2013 to 2015. Gold prices fell to the 230+ range at their lowest, and then shop owners made a fortune. Even a boss running a tiny 10-square-meter shop could earn two or three million.

And the wave of gold shop closures began after COVID reopening, when gold prices had been surging nonstop. By now, at least one-third have closed.

A lot of people still haven’t figured out the difference between doing business and speculation. “Enough for every meal” versus “enough for one meal,” brother. When gold prices were stable, a gold shop with 5 to 10 kg of inventory could still make 20% or more in stable profit if the location was good and the owner managed properly. If the location was average and management was okay, it might still make over 10%. Many people even borrowed at high interest rates, taking advantage of 1:2 leverage, to open gold shops. Isn’t this deal better than liquidating at high prices and exiting the market?

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