Circulating Supply Trap: 7.44%—a coin with a small float; shorting is basically paying the main players
$UNITREE —on the surface, this coin looks terrifying with a market cap of 259 billion, but once you dig in, the circulating supply is only 7.44%, and the circulating market cap is just 19.2 billion. What does that mean? It means there are very few tradable shares on the market; the main players can control the market with only a small amount of capital.
Recently, short videos have been everywhere spreading bearish narratives about UBTech (宇树), saying its market cap is only worth a couple hundred billion and it will go bankrupt within five years. Think about it: would a normal company have so many people collectively singing the bearish song? This looks more like an organized information war, aiming to lure retail investors into shorting—then the main players exploit the advantage of a small circulating float to squeeze the shorts.
For coins with a small circulating supply, the risk of shorting is extremely high. To short, you need borrowed shares, and the supply of those shares is limited. Once the main players push the price up, the shorts are forced to cover, which can drive the price even higher and create a short-squeeze行情.
With a circulating market cap of only 19.2 billion, the main players can pull the price up by multiples with just tens of billions. The shorts simply can’t hold out.
Trading levels:
Go long: Buy on pullbacks of 15%-20% (total market cap in the 200-220 billion range). Accumulate in batches. Place the stop-loss at the 30% pullback level.
Short: Not recommended to short proactively. If you absolutely must short, wait until the price rises 30%-40% (total market cap 330-360 billion). Only consider a small position short when there is a volume expansion plus a stalled uptrend. Stop-loss: 5%.
Core principle: For coins with a small circulating supply, going long is safer than shorting. Don’t let bearish videos manipulate you into following the crowd.
The above is only my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
$UNITREE —on the surface, this coin looks terrifying with a market cap of 259 billion, but once you dig in, the circulating supply is only 7.44%, and the circulating market cap is just 19.2 billion. What does that mean? It means there are very few tradable shares on the market; the main players can control the market with only a small amount of capital.
Recently, short videos have been everywhere spreading bearish narratives about UBTech (宇树), saying its market cap is only worth a couple hundred billion and it will go bankrupt within five years. Think about it: would a normal company have so many people collectively singing the bearish song? This looks more like an organized information war, aiming to lure retail investors into shorting—then the main players exploit the advantage of a small circulating float to squeeze the shorts.
For coins with a small circulating supply, the risk of shorting is extremely high. To short, you need borrowed shares, and the supply of those shares is limited. Once the main players push the price up, the shorts are forced to cover, which can drive the price even higher and create a short-squeeze行情.
With a circulating market cap of only 19.2 billion, the main players can pull the price up by multiples with just tens of billions. The shorts simply can’t hold out.
Trading levels:
Go long: Buy on pullbacks of 15%-20% (total market cap in the 200-220 billion range). Accumulate in batches. Place the stop-loss at the 30% pullback level.
Short: Not recommended to short proactively. If you absolutely must short, wait until the price rises 30%-40% (total market cap 330-360 billion). Only consider a small position short when there is a volume expansion plus a stalled uptrend. Stop-loss: 5%.
Core principle: For coins with a small circulating supply, going long is safer than shorting. Don’t let bearish videos manipulate you into following the crowd.
The above is only my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
