This week’s global markets will face multiple risk events, and the long-awaited rebound in the crypto market will be put to the test‼️
🟡 Monday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will hold a press conference detailing specific actions to intensify economic sanctions on Iran;
🟡 Wednesday: Key data will be released, including the U.S. July core PCE price index (YoY), U.S. July personal spending (MoM), the revised U.S. second-quarter real GDP (annualized, QoQ), and the U.S. July core PCE price index (MoM). Nvidia’s earnings will be announced after the close of trading on Wednesday;
🟡 Thursday: The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks will be held from August 27–29, and Fed Chair Waller will deliver his first speech on August 28; Nvidia will hold an earnings conference call;
⚠️ This Wednesday brings a double test: Nvidia’s earnings report and the July core PCE will be released on the same day. The former will test the earnings support behind the AI rally, while the latter is directly tied to the rate-hike path set under Waller’s Fed. And after Bessent unveils new sanctions on Iran on Monday, the reaction in oil prices will determine whether inflation expectations spiral out of control again. In essence, the crypto rebound is a bet that none of these three developments will turn out worse.
What’s being underestimated is the timing of the Jackson Hole meeting: Waller’s debut on August 28 falls precisely between the implementation of the U.S.-Iran sanctions and Nvidia’s earnings report. If the sanctions push up oil prices, and Nvidia’s guidance falls short of expectations, Waller’s room for wording between inflation and growth will become extremely tight. The market’s prior pricing of Waller has leaned toward an optimistic framework of “fiscal discipline + AI efficiency,” but this narrative has not yet undergone a stress test where supply-side inflation and a contraction in AI capital expenditures occur at the same time.
#比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅 $BTC #BTC☀
🟡 Monday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will hold a press conference detailing specific actions to intensify economic sanctions on Iran;
🟡 Wednesday: Key data will be released, including the U.S. July core PCE price index (YoY), U.S. July personal spending (MoM), the revised U.S. second-quarter real GDP (annualized, QoQ), and the U.S. July core PCE price index (MoM). Nvidia’s earnings will be announced after the close of trading on Wednesday;
🟡 Thursday: The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks will be held from August 27–29, and Fed Chair Waller will deliver his first speech on August 28; Nvidia will hold an earnings conference call;
⚠️ This Wednesday brings a double test: Nvidia’s earnings report and the July core PCE will be released on the same day. The former will test the earnings support behind the AI rally, while the latter is directly tied to the rate-hike path set under Waller’s Fed. And after Bessent unveils new sanctions on Iran on Monday, the reaction in oil prices will determine whether inflation expectations spiral out of control again. In essence, the crypto rebound is a bet that none of these three developments will turn out worse.
What’s being underestimated is the timing of the Jackson Hole meeting: Waller’s debut on August 28 falls precisely between the implementation of the U.S.-Iran sanctions and Nvidia’s earnings report. If the sanctions push up oil prices, and Nvidia’s guidance falls short of expectations, Waller’s room for wording between inflation and growth will become extremely tight. The market’s prior pricing of Waller has leaned toward an optimistic framework of “fiscal discipline + AI efficiency,” but this narrative has not yet undergone a stress test where supply-side inflation and a contraction in AI capital expenditures occur at the same time.
#比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅 $BTC #BTC☀