Monday, February 2, 2026
"Black Saturday" after "Black Friday", nomination of Waller causes a market crash, news suggests short-term trading is suitable.
Resistance: 79000, 81000
Support: 74500, 73000
1. #BTC走势分析 (Daily):
(1) Structure: Unexpected nomination of the hawkish Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chairman severely impacts the global market, gold and silver crash, and the global market declines across the board, with a rebound in the US dollar index. Bitcoin has entered a C wave decline from the high point of 97900, and there are currently no signs of a bottom. If the non-farm payroll data this Friday is favorable, there may be some rebound.
(2) MA: The 30-day moving average (89620) and the 60-day moving average (89185) are both turning down, about to form a death cross, indicating a short-term downtrend.
(3) BOLL: The middle track (MA20: 88471) is maintaining a downward trend, the lower track opens downward, and is breaking out of the track, indicating an oversold trend, with a possibility of short-term rebound, but the bottom still needs to wait for the lower track to flatten out.
(4) MACD: The two lines are below the zero axis, and the histogram has been expanding below the zero axis for five consecutive days, with selling pressure continually increasing. If it can maintain convergence for 3 to 5 days, it will form a bottom divergence, potentially leading to a daily rebound.
(5) RSI (14): The 24-hour RSI market average has fallen to 33.1, Bitcoin is at 22.3, entering the oversold zone (30~0), RSI (6) is 10.6. Historically, when RSI (6) is below 10, it indicates a stage bottom, which will welcome a rebound.
(6) Pattern: A new pattern is forming, with a higher probability of forming a terminal descending wedge.
(7) Key points: Whole numbers at 80000, previous low at 80600; breaking through this range is a signal for a stop and rebound in this round of declines, or even a phase reversal.
2. Tone-setting: A new ABC descending trend was chosen between January 28 and February 7, and it is currently in a C wave decline, with a higher probability of rebound.
3. Suggestions: In the descending trend, currently near the support level, the possibility of an oversold rebound is high, but there is no possibility of reversal in the short term. Short-term long positions need to take profits in time, patiently waiting to short at resistance levels, do not panic sell.
4. Short-term strategy:
(1) $BTC
Long: 75000~73600
Stop loss: 73000
Target: 78000--80000
Short: 78000~80000
Stop loss: 81000
Target: 75000--73000--71000
(2) $ETH
Long: 2160~2100
Stop loss: 2066
Target: 2350--2400--2470
Short: 2350, 2400, 2470
Stop loss: 2500
Target: 2150--2100--2070