☀️ A minimal recap of major global finance and cryptocurrency events from the past week

🌍 Key words: “BTC strong reversal,” “ETF funds strongly returning,” “U.S. dollar weakening,” “long-end yields staying high,” “oil prices nearing $95,” “market sentiment back to Greed”

🏛 [Macro and geopolitics: The dollar is weak, but oil prices and long-end yields remain elevated]

⭐️ 📅 August 19: The Fed releases minutes from the July 28–29 meeting. Several officials believe that if inflation cannot continue to fall, further rate hikes may still be needed. Previously, three voting members had supported a 25 bp rate hike, and hawkish divisions within the Fed remain.

⭐️ 📅 The US Treasury announced an expansion of the long-end Treasury bond repo program: repos for 10–20-year and 20–30-year securities increased from about “$2B” per operation to at least “$4 B.” The plan will be implemented starting 9/9, which should ease short-term liquidity pressure in the bond market.

⭐️ 📅 Long-end yields remain elevated: the 10-year US Treasury is around “4.73%,” and the 30-year around “5.27%.” After the Treasury intervened, yields dropped briefly, but then rebounded quickly. Fiscal deficits, long-end issuance supply, and demand for AI infrastructure financing continue to exert pressure.

⭐️ 📅 Brent crude briefly approached “$94–$95 per barrel,” up more than “5%” on the week. Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz risks have pushed up the inflation risk premium again, and oil prices remain a core variable for how interest rates and risk assets are priced.

📅 The US Dollar Index fell about “0.9%” for the week to around “98.74.” A weaker dollar supports non-USD assets such as gold and BTC. Next week, the Jackson Hole meeting and Nvidia earnings will jointly test Fed policy expectations and the AI earnings narrative.

💰 【US Stocks and Crypto Update: US stocks pull back, crypto sees a strong reversal】

⭐️ 📅 US stocks were under pressure for the week: S&P 500 “-1.4%,” Nasdaq “-2.1%,” Dow “-0.9%.” AI and tech stocks pulled back, and higher long-end yields along with rising oil prices constrained the performance of overvalued assets.

⭐️ 📅 BTC rose from about “$63K” all the way to “$77K+.” It was up about “+23.30%” on the week, with a weekly high of “$78,524.51.” After breaking above the prior “$65K–$66K” resistance zone, BTC re-entered the trend-trading range.

⭐️ 📅 ETH rose from “$1,884.91” to “$2,460.93,” up “+30.56%” on the week, with a weekly high of “$2,524.34.” SOL rose from “$74.81” to “$95.32,” up “+27.42%” on the week and briefly approached the “$100” level.

📅 This upswing wasn’t a single-day pump, but a steady lift from the early-week lows. ETH and SOL outperformed BTC in terms of gains, suggesting capital has broadened from BTC into higher-beta mainstream assets.

📅 Short sellers covering en masse further amplified the rally: after BTC broke above “$70K,” leveraged short positions were forced to cover. ETF buying, a weaker dollar, and risk capital returning formed a strong alignment.

🏢 【ETF and Institutional Flows: Five straight days of net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs】

⭐️ 📅 Total net inflows into the BTC spot ETF for the whole week are about “+$1.918B,” with five consecutive trading days of inflows: 8/17 “+$297.5M,” 8/18 “+$189.3M,” 8/19 “+$517.2M,” 8/20 “+$606.3M,” 8/21 “+$307.5M.”

⭐️ 📅 On 8/20, BTC ETF saw a daily inflow of “+$606.3M,” the highest since May. IBIT is the absolute main driver—its daily inflow on 8/20 was “+$503.0M,” indicating institutional buying has once again concentrated back.

⭐️ 📅 Net inflows into the ETH ETF for the whole week are about “+$692.6M,” also with five consecutive days of inflows. Inflows were “+$219.5M” on 8/20 and “+$184.0M” on 8/21; ETHA is the main fund-absorbing product.

📅 SOL ETF saw about “+$28.7M” in net inflows for the week. The scale is smaller, but inflows have continued for multiple days, and allocations to mainstream altcoins are starting to recover.

⭐️ 📅 Market sentiment quickly swung from Fear to Greed: the Fear & Greed Index rose from “30” on 8/17 to about “71,” the highest level during the week. Even over the weekend, it remained in the Greed range. ETF inflows, improving sentiment, and a price breakout formed triple confirmation, but short-term chasing and leverage risks also rose at the same time.

📅 On 8/18, the SEC proposed (Regulation Crypto Assets), aiming to build a more targeted financing and registration path for issuing certain crypto assets. On 8/19, the White House held a meeting with the crypto industry. Trump again urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, but the bill has not yet been formally implemented.

📅 On risk events: Term Finance vault was attacked, with losses of about “$8.5M.” Safety and governance controversies related to Coldcard, SafePal, and BIP-110/OCEAN are still ongoing, suggesting infrastructure risks have not disappeared even as the market rallies.

📊 【Market Rundown: A strong trend rebound driven by ETFs】

This week’s market completed a fast reversal from “ETF net outflows and BTC falling back to 63K” to “five-day net ETF inflows and BTC surging toward 80K.” What truly drove the move wasn’t that macro turned fully dovish, but rather the strong rebound in BTC/ETH ETF flows, a weaker dollar, the Treasury expanding long-end bond repos, and short sellers covering in size.

There is still clear macro pressure: the 10-year US Treasury is around “4.73%,” and the 30-year around “5.27%.” Brent is near “$95,” and the Fed meeting minutes also leave room for further rate hikes. In other words, in crypto this week, ETF capital strength temporarily outweighs macro pressure, rather than macro risks having disappeared.

Key to watch next week:

📌 Whether BTC can hold the “$73K–$74K” range and challenge the “$78.5K–$80K” area;

📌 Whether BTC and ETH ETF inflows can keep going—rather than quickly reversing after a price spike;

📌 Whether the Fed at Jackson Hole confirms a pause in September;

📌 Whether Brent breaks above “$95” and pushes up inflation expectations again;

📌 Whether the 30-year US Treasury yields break back above “5.30%”;

📌 Whether ETH can keep outperforming BTC, and whether SOL can effectively break above “$100”;

📌 Whether Nvidia’s earnings can stabilize AI and US stock risk appetite again.

Bottom line: This week should be viewed as an “ETF-driven trend breakout,” but not an unconditional buy-high signal. As long as BTC holds the “$73K–$74K” range and ETFs continue to see net inflows, there’s still room for the move to extend. But if Jackson Hole turns hawkish, oil breaks above “$95,” or ETF inflows suddenly cool down, BTC could see a sharp pullback near “$78.5K–$80K.”