What was bound to come has finally arrived, the ETH at 2200 has been postponed for a month, but this way is just too brutal.
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区块动力
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It is expected that we will see around 2300 ETH before the end of December.
Over the past week, the rebound strength of $ETH has continued to weaken, and the 4H level downtrend line still firmly suppresses the price. None of the three rebounds were able to break through the resonance area of MA60 and the trend line, which is highly similar to the structure of multiple downward cycles from 2022 to 2023.
From a historical large sample perspective, under the combination of 'weak rebound + trend line resistance + decreasing volume,' ETH typically enters a new round of decline in the next 1-3 weeks, with an average drawdown range of about 25-30%. Based on the current structure, if this pattern continues, the decline from around 3200 is expected to approximate a drop of about 28%, corresponding to a target range right at 2300-2400, which also coincides with a densely supported area across multiple cycles.
At the same time, on-chain activity, funding rates, and derivative positions are also weakening synchronously, indicating a lack of sufficient upward momentum in the short term.
In simple terms: as long as ETH cannot clearly break through the trend reversal area of 3300, moving towards around 2300 by the end of this month is a highly probable event. For short-term traders, this market condition is more suitable for following the trend; for long-term investors, the 2300 area may become the next potential strategic allocation point.
Over the past week, the rebound strength of $ETH has continued to weaken, and the 4H level downtrend line still firmly suppresses the price. None of the three rebounds were able to break through the resonance area of MA60 and the trend line, which is highly similar to the structure of multiple downward cycles from 2022 to 2023.
From a historical large sample perspective, under the combination of 'weak rebound + trend line resistance + decreasing volume,' ETH typically enters a new round of decline in the next 1-3 weeks, with an average drawdown range of about 25-30%. Based on the current structure, if this pattern continues, the decline from around 3200 is expected to approximate a drop of about 28%, corresponding to a target range right at 2300-2400, which also coincides with a densely supported area across multiple cycles.
At the same time, on-chain activity, funding rates, and derivative positions are also weakening synchronously, indicating a lack of sufficient upward momentum in the short term.
In simple terms: as long as ETH cannot clearly break through the trend reversal area of 3300, moving towards around 2300 by the end of this month is a highly probable event. For short-term traders, this market condition is more suitable for following the trend; for long-term investors, the 2300 area may become the next potential strategic allocation point.
