SOL is now around 93.8u. After topping near 102.8, it pulled back by about 9 points—roughly.
First, the conclusion: the larger trend is still likely bullish, but I won’t chase here. I’ll wait for this pullback wave to finish.
This move ran from 74 to 102.8—within 7 days up 26% or more. A breather is completely normal. The key is whether, during the pullback, the money is still flowing.
Currently, over the past 3 hours, spot net inflow is positive. All 12 candles are green. Also, the ETF added 28.3 million USD last week. On the sentiment side, KOLs are overwhelmingly bullish—when it drops, people are stepping in to buy. This doesn’t look like capital is撤退.
Futures side is also fine. The fee rate is only 0.01%, long positions aren’t expensive, and I don’t see any obvious bubble.
Whale accounts have about 70% positioned long, and they’re still adding. On-chain lending/borrowing surged by 154% within 12 hours—leverage capital is refilling. This is both fuel for the bounce and a risk point.
That said, don’t rush on the short term. The 1-hour chart is still moving downward. Price is below the 15-minute moving averages. On the futures side, passive selling orders account for nearly 60%. On the 15-minute spot chart, net outflow is still ongoing. The daily RSI has surged into the extreme overbought zone (above 84), and volatility has spiked. Selling pressure hasn’t fully been released yet.
So my plan: the long thesis is still intact—when it falls, someone is buying. But right now it’s “currently pulling back,” not “the pullback is over.” Wait until price stabilizes in the 91–93 area and short-term funds turn back to inflow before going long. That’s a more comfortable entry than catching the knife here. If price breaks below 87 (the 3-day low), then the long thesis would need to be reconsidered.
#sol $SOL
First, the conclusion: the larger trend is still likely bullish, but I won’t chase here. I’ll wait for this pullback wave to finish.
This move ran from 74 to 102.8—within 7 days up 26% or more. A breather is completely normal. The key is whether, during the pullback, the money is still flowing.
Currently, over the past 3 hours, spot net inflow is positive. All 12 candles are green. Also, the ETF added 28.3 million USD last week. On the sentiment side, KOLs are overwhelmingly bullish—when it drops, people are stepping in to buy. This doesn’t look like capital is撤退.
Futures side is also fine. The fee rate is only 0.01%, long positions aren’t expensive, and I don’t see any obvious bubble.
Whale accounts have about 70% positioned long, and they’re still adding. On-chain lending/borrowing surged by 154% within 12 hours—leverage capital is refilling. This is both fuel for the bounce and a risk point.
That said, don’t rush on the short term. The 1-hour chart is still moving downward. Price is below the 15-minute moving averages. On the futures side, passive selling orders account for nearly 60%. On the 15-minute spot chart, net outflow is still ongoing. The daily RSI has surged into the extreme overbought zone (above 84), and volatility has spiked. Selling pressure hasn’t fully been released yet.
So my plan: the long thesis is still intact—when it falls, someone is buying. But right now it’s “currently pulling back,” not “the pullback is over.” Wait until price stabilizes in the 91–93 area and short-term funds turn back to inflow before going long. That’s a more comfortable entry than catching the knife here. If price breaks below 87 (the 3-day low), then the long thesis would need to be reconsidered.
#sol $SOL
