PENGU is now around 0.0097u. In 7 days it has gained more than sixty percent, and in a single day it added another 15 percentage points. My bias is slightly bullish, but I won’t chase at this level.
First, let me explain why I’m leaning bullish. This move isn’t just a hype spike from perpetual contracts—there is actually spot capital coming in: over the past three hours, net inflows have stayed positive, and all 12 funding “candles” are green. The funding rate is still down at around 0.005%—a very low level. Leverage hasn’t been overextended. Even the four-hour trend is still pointing upward; ADX is rising, and volume is expanding to about three times the average.
The problem is that the short-term momentum is a bit too aggressive. Price is hovering near the 7-day high (0.01035) and then turned back. Over the past 1 hour, net price decline is 2.6%. In just 15 minutes it has already broken below the short moving average. RSI has touched 79, and MFI is at 87—everything is in the overbought zone.
What’s even more important to watch is the order flow. Over the last 7 hours, the whales’ long positions have shrunk by nearly 20%. Recently, large spot orders over the past 15 minutes have also flipped to net outflow. When it rises to this level, it looks like some people have started distributing. At the same time, the number of open positions has jumped nearly 30% in a day, on-chain lending has doubled over 12 hours, and new leverage is taking over at the high.
This combination is most vulnerable to a sudden drop-off in buying—leading to a cascade of selling. So my plan is: the trend hasn’t broken, but chasing longs here has poor cost-effectiveness. Either wait for a pullback so the leverage gets shaken out before entering, or follow with a smaller position—don’t load up.
#pengu $PENGU
First, let me explain why I’m leaning bullish. This move isn’t just a hype spike from perpetual contracts—there is actually spot capital coming in: over the past three hours, net inflows have stayed positive, and all 12 funding “candles” are green. The funding rate is still down at around 0.005%—a very low level. Leverage hasn’t been overextended. Even the four-hour trend is still pointing upward; ADX is rising, and volume is expanding to about three times the average.
The problem is that the short-term momentum is a bit too aggressive. Price is hovering near the 7-day high (0.01035) and then turned back. Over the past 1 hour, net price decline is 2.6%. In just 15 minutes it has already broken below the short moving average. RSI has touched 79, and MFI is at 87—everything is in the overbought zone.
What’s even more important to watch is the order flow. Over the last 7 hours, the whales’ long positions have shrunk by nearly 20%. Recently, large spot orders over the past 15 minutes have also flipped to net outflow. When it rises to this level, it looks like some people have started distributing. At the same time, the number of open positions has jumped nearly 30% in a day, on-chain lending has doubled over 12 hours, and new leverage is taking over at the high.
This combination is most vulnerable to a sudden drop-off in buying—leading to a cascade of selling. So my plan is: the trend hasn’t broken, but chasing longs here has poor cost-effectiveness. Either wait for a pullback so the leverage gets shaken out before entering, or follow with a smaller position—don’t load up.
#pengu $PENGU
