The crypto market sentiment is warming up as BTC rises back above $78,000.

【Macro】Kashkari soothes the market; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.73%, and the 30-year yield remains near its highest level since 2007. The SEC released the Reg Crypto draft, entering a 60-day public comment period. BTC gained 23% over the week. The number of U.S. coin-holding adults reached 49.6 million, exceeding gold holders of 28.8 million. Tether abandoned a $120 million mining project due to a power contract dispute in Uruguay.

【Sectors】Grayscale filed a revised application for a Zcash trust, aiming to launch the U.S.’s first privacy coin spot ETF, ZCSH. ZEC surged more than 200% in four months. XRP rose about 50% over the week, hitting its best performance since November 2024. The TRUMP team added another one-way liquidity selloff of 1.1 million tokens, receiving 2.94 million USDC in return. Arthur Hayes bought back 1.9 million ETHFI at $0.62.

【Flows】Wintermute’s shorts expanded from $146 million to $190 million, with an unrealized loss of $5.85 million. Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled $405 million (longs: $246 million; shorts: $159 million). “Maji” holds a $150,000 ETH long position with an unrealized profit of $11.15 million; leverage remains at 12x. In July, crypto card spending totaled $1.04 billion, triple year-over-year. Visa disclosed more than 160 stablecoin card projects worldwide.

【Strategy】Bias is bullish, with a stop-loss. BTC’s next resistance is the prior high; pullbacks may still be worth watching. The ZEC ETF outlook is the strongest catalyst for the sector, but the four-month rally has already priced in part of the expectation. The “curve control” expectation for XRP depends on the timing of the U.S. Treasury’s buyback execution. Risks: if Wintermute’s shorts continue adding positions or trigger a chain liquidation cascade; and sell pressure from the TRUMP team suppresses MEME sentiment.

The above content is generated by AI based on publicly available market data and does not constitute any investment advice.