ETH is now around 2457. It has just bounced up from the 2355 low point, and the top is right beneath the previous high at 2549.
The big picture isn’t broken. This week it surged from 1871 to 2549, up about 30%. After pulling back to 2355, spot over the last nearly 3 hours has seen 12 consecutive green candles turn all red. Meanwhile, large players’ positions are also adding to longs, and real money is still stepping in at the bottom with cash. Futures open interest is moving up along with price, and the funding rate is only about 0.01%, so leverage isn’t crowded—there’s still room in the money behind this rise.
The issue is location. Above 2457 are two hurdles: 2485 and 2549. In the order book, the sell orders in the top 20 levels are thicker by about a whole layer compared to the buys. The rebound just crashes straight into the supply zone. On the technical side, RSI is already at 79, close to overbought. And for contract trades, the recent pattern of aggressive executions has been more skewed toward selling. Whether this short-term momentum can continue depends on whether volume is there.
To put it plainly: the structure is still bullish, but if you chase here, above you have trapped positions and heavy sell orders; below, if 2413 is lost, you’ll have to fall back to find support near 2355. The on-chain lending long/short ratio is also leaning toward longs at about 24x, and leverage sentiment is one-sided—so the odds aren’t great. Wait for two kinds of confirmation: either volume expands and it breaks and holds above 2549, and then a retest doesn’t break; or pull back and hold steady above 2413, and only then it’ll be much more comfortable to act.
At this level I won’t chase—I'll first see how the market chooses.
#eth $ETH
The big picture isn’t broken. This week it surged from 1871 to 2549, up about 30%. After pulling back to 2355, spot over the last nearly 3 hours has seen 12 consecutive green candles turn all red. Meanwhile, large players’ positions are also adding to longs, and real money is still stepping in at the bottom with cash. Futures open interest is moving up along with price, and the funding rate is only about 0.01%, so leverage isn’t crowded—there’s still room in the money behind this rise.
The issue is location. Above 2457 are two hurdles: 2485 and 2549. In the order book, the sell orders in the top 20 levels are thicker by about a whole layer compared to the buys. The rebound just crashes straight into the supply zone. On the technical side, RSI is already at 79, close to overbought. And for contract trades, the recent pattern of aggressive executions has been more skewed toward selling. Whether this short-term momentum can continue depends on whether volume is there.
To put it plainly: the structure is still bullish, but if you chase here, above you have trapped positions and heavy sell orders; below, if 2413 is lost, you’ll have to fall back to find support near 2355. The on-chain lending long/short ratio is also leaning toward longs at about 24x, and leverage sentiment is one-sided—so the odds aren’t great. Wait for two kinds of confirmation: either volume expands and it breaks and holds above 2549, and then a retest doesn’t break; or pull back and hold steady above 2413, and only then it’ll be much more comfortable to act.
At this level I won’t chase—I'll first see how the market chooses.
#eth $ETH
