Brothers, BTC has ground back to the 77,000 threshold again. Yesterday at 78,800 it held back and pulled away; now it’s贴着脸 (right up close) squatting at the edge of 78,000 again🤣
First, I’ll state the conclusion—direction I agree with, but before this level is kicked through, I won’t chase. You brothers who chase high—consider it yourselves.
The hardest part is money. This week the spot ETF has flowed in almost $2 billion. Over spot’s three-hour timeframe, there are 12 “pillars” with every one of them fully topped up with inflows—big orders haven’t stopped either. This is real gold-and-silver stacking into the pool; it’s not just talk about being bullish.
More importantly, the fee rate is only 0.01%—pitifully low. On-chain leveraged lending, even after borrowing for 12 hours, the figure shrank by seven or eight tenths. This move is bought with spot, not piled up with futures leverage. Long positions weren’t squeezed, and the “fuel” hasn’t even been burned through. It’s totally different from that kind of mad bull where fees are sky-high and there’s a snapback anytime.
Whales have 70% of their positions betting long, and they’re standing on the same side too.
But the problem is also here: price is hugging the 78,000 threshold. A few days ago it surged to 79,500 and then got slapped back down. The RSI is pushed up to 80—overbought—volatility has gone to extremes, yet volume is only around the average level; there’s no sign of the force to hard-push with a surge in volume. Chasing longs from this spot just isn’t great in terms of cost-effectiveness.
My approach: either wait for it to kick through 78,000 and hold, then go in—or wait for a pullback that doesn’t break, then enter. Both paths are more comfortable than chasing right at its face right now.
#btc $BTC
First, I’ll state the conclusion—direction I agree with, but before this level is kicked through, I won’t chase. You brothers who chase high—consider it yourselves.
The hardest part is money. This week the spot ETF has flowed in almost $2 billion. Over spot’s three-hour timeframe, there are 12 “pillars” with every one of them fully topped up with inflows—big orders haven’t stopped either. This is real gold-and-silver stacking into the pool; it’s not just talk about being bullish.
More importantly, the fee rate is only 0.01%—pitifully low. On-chain leveraged lending, even after borrowing for 12 hours, the figure shrank by seven or eight tenths. This move is bought with spot, not piled up with futures leverage. Long positions weren’t squeezed, and the “fuel” hasn’t even been burned through. It’s totally different from that kind of mad bull where fees are sky-high and there’s a snapback anytime.
Whales have 70% of their positions betting long, and they’re standing on the same side too.
But the problem is also here: price is hugging the 78,000 threshold. A few days ago it surged to 79,500 and then got slapped back down. The RSI is pushed up to 80—overbought—volatility has gone to extremes, yet volume is only around the average level; there’s no sign of the force to hard-push with a surge in volume. Chasing longs from this spot just isn’t great in terms of cost-effectiveness.
My approach: either wait for it to kick through 78,000 and hold, then go in—or wait for a pullback that doesn’t break, then enter. Both paths are more comfortable than chasing right at its face right now.
#btc $BTC
