SOL is now around 95.4u. Two days ago, it crashed from 102.8 down to 87 with a big bearish candle, then bounced back to this level—right in the middle of the rebound.
First, the conclusion: funds are flowing back, but I won’t chase here. I’ll wait.
The most valuable signal is the spot market. In the last 3 hours, there’s been a net inflow of over ten million; all 12 candlesticks are green, and large orders have been continuously absorbing. Whale/large-holder long positions have been increased to more than 70% and are still adding. Even more rare: the contract funding rate is almost zero, which suggests this move wasn’t built by leverage “piling in”—it’s real money coming in.
But the issue is also here. After a violent pullback of about 15 percentage points, the short-term RSI and MFI have both pushed into overbought territory, volatility is at a peak, and lately the order book shows active sell orders pressing down on the bid. In the middle of this kind of rebound, both directions are reasonable.
So I’d rather treat it as: capital has started to re-recognize the move, but it still hasn’t shown full certainty. Chasing long at the 95 mid price isn’t great in terms of risk-reward. Wait until it retraces to around 91 where it can hold, or when it puts volume back and reclaims the resistance zone of 97–100—then consider taking action.
Now we just have to see which way it chooses.
#sol $SOL
First, the conclusion: funds are flowing back, but I won’t chase here. I’ll wait.
The most valuable signal is the spot market. In the last 3 hours, there’s been a net inflow of over ten million; all 12 candlesticks are green, and large orders have been continuously absorbing. Whale/large-holder long positions have been increased to more than 70% and are still adding. Even more rare: the contract funding rate is almost zero, which suggests this move wasn’t built by leverage “piling in”—it’s real money coming in.
But the issue is also here. After a violent pullback of about 15 percentage points, the short-term RSI and MFI have both pushed into overbought territory, volatility is at a peak, and lately the order book shows active sell orders pressing down on the bid. In the middle of this kind of rebound, both directions are reasonable.
So I’d rather treat it as: capital has started to re-recognize the move, but it still hasn’t shown full certainty. Chasing long at the 95 mid price isn’t great in terms of risk-reward. Wait until it retraces to around 91 where it can hold, or when it puts volume back and reclaims the resistance zone of 97–100—then consider taking action.
Now we just have to see which way it chooses.
#sol $SOL
