HYPE is now around 82.2u, moving right along with this week’s high. First the conclusion: I’m leaning bullish on direction, but I won’t chase from this spot.
The trend is still strong: over the past week it’s up 44%; both the 4-hour and the daily are pointing up; price is trading above the moving averages; and the open interest has expanded again by 11% in a day. This puts it in the strong-acceleration quadrant—bullish ammo is being added, not withdrawn.
The issue is this push phase. When price tested the 7-day high around 83.5, within the deepest 20 order book levels, the sell orders were 12 times the buy orders. The bids are painfully thin. The aggressive flow tells the same story: the taker long/short ratio has dropped to 0.686; aggressive buys make up only about 40%, and over the last seven hours the aggressive buy volume fell by 43%—meaning as it climbed to the high point, aggressive selling overtook aggressive buying.
The fee is still stuck at an ultra-low level like 0.005%, leverage hasn’t overheated, and the whale accounts are still holding 64% long positions—so I don’t think this trend move has ended.
Plainly put: the trend hasn’t broken, but the risk-reward for chasing longs from here is just average. If price is hugging the new high and sell pressure is stacked up, and if trading volume can’t keep up, the pullback won’t be small. My plan is to wait for a pullback, confirm it, and then enter—not to chase here, and not to short against the trend.
#hype $HYPE
The trend is still strong: over the past week it’s up 44%; both the 4-hour and the daily are pointing up; price is trading above the moving averages; and the open interest has expanded again by 11% in a day. This puts it in the strong-acceleration quadrant—bullish ammo is being added, not withdrawn.
The issue is this push phase. When price tested the 7-day high around 83.5, within the deepest 20 order book levels, the sell orders were 12 times the buy orders. The bids are painfully thin. The aggressive flow tells the same story: the taker long/short ratio has dropped to 0.686; aggressive buys make up only about 40%, and over the last seven hours the aggressive buy volume fell by 43%—meaning as it climbed to the high point, aggressive selling overtook aggressive buying.
The fee is still stuck at an ultra-low level like 0.005%, leverage hasn’t overheated, and the whale accounts are still holding 64% long positions—so I don’t think this trend move has ended.
Plainly put: the trend hasn’t broken, but the risk-reward for chasing longs from here is just average. If price is hugging the new high and sell pressure is stacked up, and if trading volume can’t keep up, the pullback won’t be small. My plan is to wait for a pullback, confirm it, and then enter—not to chase here, and not to short against the trend.
#hype $HYPE
