This week, BTC rose from $63,120 to $77,006—up 22% week over week, the strongest single-week performance since March 2024. ETFs saw net inflows of $1.918 billion over five days; the inflow is 7.9 times the amount of newly minted coins during the same period.
These are very nice numbers.
But—Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said: “The $80,000 level is an important boundary now, and a decisive breakout likely needs confirmation from a Jackson Hole speech that the Fed’s policy is moving away from further tightening.”
When I read that line, I had a familiar feeling.
Not that the judgment is wrong—it’s logically correct. It’s that feeling—the industry’s holders are always waiting for the next catalyst. Waiting for ETF approval, waiting for the CLARITY Act, waiting for FOMC data, waiting for jobs data, waiting for CPI, waiting for Jackson Hole… Every time a catalyst lands, the next one is already waiting.
Three events next week: the PCE data on August 26, Nvidia’s earnings report, and Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech on August 27–29. If any of these three events surprises, this week’s 22% rally could quickly give back part of its gains.
“This rally is a macro story, not a crypto-specific one”—BTC is extremely sensitive to liquidity expectations and real yields, and this time it’s simply reacted accordingly.
The logic behind that sentence goes further: the macro variables that drive the move can move in reverse.
I’m not calling it bearish—I’m wondering about a deeper question: when will the crypto market have a rise that doesn’t require waiting for macro catalysts? That day will probably be when this asset class truly matures.
Before Jackson Hole, do you think BTC can hold 77,000? Share your view.
$BTC


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