PENGU is now around 0.0102u. This move has really played out a bit—it's up about 70% over 7 days, and today it also surged by 18%.
I’m bullish on the direction, but I won’t chase at this level.
The strongest confidence comes from spot fund flow. In the past 3 hours, spot net inflows have been positive the entire time—no breaks at all, and large orders have kept coming in. This suggests it isn’t just a pure sentiment-driven move; real money is picking up the supply. The underlying foundation is more solid than in the previous few rounds.
The trouble is that the short-term is overheated. RSI and MFI have both entered the overbought zone, volatility is also spiking. Although the 4-hour direction is still upward, the trend strength hasn’t been fully confirmed yet. On top of that, over the past day, futures open interest actually dropped by 10%, and the large holders’ long-position ratio is also being reduced. When price has already climbed close to the new stage high, some people are already taking profits.
So chasing longs here has a mediocre risk-reward. Funds are still there, but risk is being raised. The cost of entering now versus the cost of buying on a pullback isn’t that different. A more comfortable approach is to wait for a pullback—see whether there are buyers at the low point. If it gets taken and held, then go up with it.
The direction isn’t wrong—don’t rush.
#pengu $PENGU
I’m bullish on the direction, but I won’t chase at this level.
The strongest confidence comes from spot fund flow. In the past 3 hours, spot net inflows have been positive the entire time—no breaks at all, and large orders have kept coming in. This suggests it isn’t just a pure sentiment-driven move; real money is picking up the supply. The underlying foundation is more solid than in the previous few rounds.
The trouble is that the short-term is overheated. RSI and MFI have both entered the overbought zone, volatility is also spiking. Although the 4-hour direction is still upward, the trend strength hasn’t been fully confirmed yet. On top of that, over the past day, futures open interest actually dropped by 10%, and the large holders’ long-position ratio is also being reduced. When price has already climbed close to the new stage high, some people are already taking profits.
So chasing longs here has a mediocre risk-reward. Funds are still there, but risk is being raised. The cost of entering now versus the cost of buying on a pullback isn’t that different. A more comfortable approach is to wait for a pullback—see whether there are buyers at the low point. If it gets taken and held, then go up with it.
The direction isn’t wrong—don’t rush.
#pengu $PENGU
