橙子Joyce

Decoding NVIDIA’s and Poolside’s latest deal: NVIDIA pays $6 billion to obtain a non-exclusive license for Poolside’s “Model Factory” technology—core software for Poolside’s construction of the Laguna series open-source code models. At the same time, NVIDIA has extended invitations to more than 100 Poolside engineers, who will join NVIDIA’s Nemotron open-weight model project. Since it launched in 2023, the project has been developing larger, more advanced versions; reports suggest the parameter scale could reach the trillion level. There is also roughly a $1 billion equity investment to go along with it. This is a signature move from NVIDIA’s “plow with a hoe” to “dig for gold,” as Huang Renxun uses it to dive deeper into the model layer and build full-stack “AI factory” capabilities tightly integrated with NVIDIA’s ecosystem.

Four key takeaways:

First
NVIDIA aims to recreate one of the world’s strongest open-weight models, benchmarking China’s open-source models while directly challenging leading U.S. closed-source companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Open-weight models are cheaper to run and easier to customize.

Second
Expanding from selling GPU hardware to the software and model layers strengthens NVIDIA’s control across the entire upstream and downstream ecosystem.

Third
The moat deepens, but competition with customers also intensifies: improvements in open-weight model capabilities may drive GPU demand, but Nemotron directly competes with large customers’ closed models, which could strain relationships.

Fourth
The trend can be summarized as large-model providers developing their own chips, and chipmakers developing their own models—competition is further escalating.

When Huang Renxun publicly voiced support for open source at the end of July, it was effectively laying the groundwork for NVIDIA’s own open-source models. This deal is a crucial step for NVIDIA to push harder in the open-source race between China and the United States. If the upgraded Nemotron’s performance can catch up, it will further benefit cloud providers and software companies that control customer workflow data.

On August 26 at 20:30, the July PCE data will be released. If the reading comes in hotter than expected, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September policy path are likely to be affected, and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields may move in tandem with global risk assets. In addition, the revised estimate of the U.S. real GDP for Q2 will be released on August 26 at 20:30. On a month-over-month basis, investors expect the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—to rise by 0.2%. If the increase is larger, it could lead investors to reconsider expectations that the Fed will stay on hold in September, potentially opening the door for a pullback in gold. Conversely, if the monthly core PCE inflation data is weaker than expected, it may help gold move higher further.

Then on Thursday, August 27, traders will focus on the weekly initial jobless claims report. At 22:00 on Friday, the preliminary annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls data will also be released, along with the final reading of the University of Michigan’s August consumer sentiment index.

The preliminary annual benchmark revision to nonfarm employment data will indicate whether previously reported U.S. employment figures were overestimated or underestimated. After recent signs of softer hiring, this revision may become even more important. If it suggests a significant weakening in the labor market, it could affect expectations for Fed policy.

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The momentum of U.S. economic growth is accelerating. S&P Global’s U.S. Composite PMI rose by 1.5 points in August to 56.0, the highest level since April 2022 and the third consecutive month of gains. At the same time, the Services PMI increased by 2.2 points to 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.7 points to 53.9, the lowest level in the past five months, but it remains in the expansion range.

Meanwhile, U.S. firms’ hiring activity is led by the services sector, with headcount increasing at the fastest pace since January 2025. These data suggest that the United States’ year-on-year GDP growth rate in Q3 2026 will reach +3.0%, compared with +1.5% in Q2. Artificial intelligence is driving a historic wave of growth.

【Anthropic is expected to match or exceed SpaceX’s IPO record】

Previously, reports said that Anthropic’s preliminary revenue in the second quarter exceeded $11.5 billion, while it was only $787 million in the same period of 2025. By the end of July, the company’s annualized revenue run rate had reached $65 billion.

According to people familiar with the matter, the AI company Anthropic expects its IPO size to match or exceed the record set by SpaceX. As the AI company accelerates its preparations for going public, a mega-IPO is being lined up. The people familiar with the matter said that Anthropic is conducting related calculations and preparing to file for a potentially large IPO as early as later this month. They added that a recent investor communications meeting chaired by Chief Financial Officer Klao avoided discussing valuation. Data shows that at the time of its IPO, SpaceX—an aerospace company for rockets and satellites—raised $75 billion, becoming the largest initial public offering in history. Because it exercised so-called over-allotment options, the figure ultimately rose to $86.2 billion. This mechanism is typically triggered in the early period after the stock begins trading. Anthropic’s target reflects how leading companies in the AI industry are reshaping the tech investment landscape in an extremely short time. Previously, reports said that Anthropic’s preliminary revenue in the second quarter exceeded $11.5 billion, while it was only $787 million in the same period of 2025. By the end of July, the company’s annualized revenue run rate had reached $65 billion.

The U.S. Treasury steps in to support the market, pushing down the U.S. Treasury yields that have been pressuring global stock markets. The U.S. Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its buyback program for long-term Treasury bonds. After the news broke, the prices of ultra-long Treasury bonds issued by the U.S. government surged sharply. The backdrop to this move is that global long-term bond markets have recently suffered large-scale selling, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly spiked to the highest level since 2007 on Monday. At the same time, traders are preparing for a new issuance auction of $16 billion worth of 20-year Treasury notes scheduled to take place soon. In a statement, the U.S. Treasury said, “By increasing the size of the repurchase operations, the Treasury aims to provide stronger liquidity support for the long-dated nominal Treasury market. Within these maturity ranges, market participants have consistently demonstrated strong and stable appetite, which is evidenced by the large volume of high-quality bids the Treasury regularly receives in its long-dated Treasury repurchase operations.” Under the accelerated repurchase plan, the Treasury will focus on repurchasing Treasuries in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity ranges. Since the end of June, the U.S. Treasury markets in these maturities have been plagued by a “buyer walkout,” with investors’ willingness to take on the bonds clearly lacking. According to the Treasury’s announcement, the government will increase the maximum size of each repurchase operation “by at least” double—from $2 billion to “at least” $4 billion.
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