BCH is currently around 274U. In three days it surged all the way from 208 to 306. After the run, it has now pulled back to this level.
First, let’s clarify where the current divergence is.
On the futures/contract side, this round of cooling is real. The open interest shrank by nearly 8% in a single day; the basis (futures-premium) was cut by more than half. Leverage that chased higher is withdrawing rather than adding.
The short-term active trading flow is also skewed to sell. In the order book’s top 20 levels, sell orders are pressing down on buy orders; there isn’t meaningful support or thick buy-side absorption.
But spot is showing a different picture. Over the past three hours, net inflows have remained positive for 12 candles—no single green candle has ever broken that streak. Overall large orders are also net inflows. That suggests that at the spot sell-off level, people are truly stepping in with real money to buy.
On the big-holder side, more than 70% of positions are in the long direction. Over the past seven hours, they’ve still been adding, not running.
So this isn’t a one-sided market. It’s a tug-of-war: leverage is being reduced while spot is absorbing the dip.
The technicals also confirm this. Indicators are still in overbought territory. RSI and MFI are both in extreme zones, but the MACD hasn’t broken down. Price is holding above the 50-line; the 20-line is still overhead acting as resistance that hasn’t been cleared.
My stance is: don’t chase.
It’s good news if someone is picking up during the pullback. But overbought conditions haven’t been digested yet, and the contracts are still reducing leverage. The entry opportunity isn’t great right now. Wait for the retracement to shake out the floating profit, then we can reassess whether spot inflows can push the price back above the 20-line. Then it will be much more comfortable to act.
At this level, wait and chase strength on a proportional basis.
#bch $BCH
First, let’s clarify where the current divergence is.
On the futures/contract side, this round of cooling is real. The open interest shrank by nearly 8% in a single day; the basis (futures-premium) was cut by more than half. Leverage that chased higher is withdrawing rather than adding.
The short-term active trading flow is also skewed to sell. In the order book’s top 20 levels, sell orders are pressing down on buy orders; there isn’t meaningful support or thick buy-side absorption.
But spot is showing a different picture. Over the past three hours, net inflows have remained positive for 12 candles—no single green candle has ever broken that streak. Overall large orders are also net inflows. That suggests that at the spot sell-off level, people are truly stepping in with real money to buy.
On the big-holder side, more than 70% of positions are in the long direction. Over the past seven hours, they’ve still been adding, not running.
So this isn’t a one-sided market. It’s a tug-of-war: leverage is being reduced while spot is absorbing the dip.
The technicals also confirm this. Indicators are still in overbought territory. RSI and MFI are both in extreme zones, but the MACD hasn’t broken down. Price is holding above the 50-line; the 20-line is still overhead acting as resistance that hasn’t been cleared.
My stance is: don’t chase.
It’s good news if someone is picking up during the pullback. But overbought conditions haven’t been digested yet, and the contracts are still reducing leverage. The entry opportunity isn’t great right now. Wait for the retracement to shake out the floating profit, then we can reassess whether spot inflows can push the price back above the 20-line. Then it will be much more comfortable to act.
At this level, wait and chase strength on a proportional basis.
#bch $BCH
