8.23 Chen Jie’s Next-Week Market Outlook
Gold ETF holdings saw a sharp daily increase of +8.27 tons. The central bank’s gold reserves continue to provide steady support (+19.91 tons), and there are clear signs of net inflow from large funds—very decisive. Next week, the market focus will be on the Fed Chair’s speech, the Jackson Hole conference, and the U.S. core PCE inflation data. On Friday, prices surged up by 84 USD and closed at 4603.25. The long structure on the larger timeframe has been fully opened. Next week, the overarching direction will firmly maintain the stance of pulling back to build energy, with a one-way bullish tone.
On both the daily and 4-hour charts, the moving averages form a standard bullish alignment with divergence. The daily K-line shows a breakout with increased volume and has refreshed the high at 4632.18. The consolidation-and-build formation has been completely opened upward, leaving room to expand.
The prior broken major top at 4540–4550 has been converted into a strong defensive platform at the weekly level that is not easily to be surpassed. The 4-hour MA10 (4547) continues to rise and provides underlying support. Even if a technical pullback and “washout” occurs at the start of the week, this support line will not be easily broken.
Trading Strategy
Go long around 4550–4580 (buy the dips) targeting 4630–4680–4780. Keep 4535#xau $XAU as defense/support.
Gold ETF holdings saw a sharp daily increase of +8.27 tons. The central bank’s gold reserves continue to provide steady support (+19.91 tons), and there are clear signs of net inflow from large funds—very decisive. Next week, the market focus will be on the Fed Chair’s speech, the Jackson Hole conference, and the U.S. core PCE inflation data. On Friday, prices surged up by 84 USD and closed at 4603.25. The long structure on the larger timeframe has been fully opened. Next week, the overarching direction will firmly maintain the stance of pulling back to build energy, with a one-way bullish tone.
On both the daily and 4-hour charts, the moving averages form a standard bullish alignment with divergence. The daily K-line shows a breakout with increased volume and has refreshed the high at 4632.18. The consolidation-and-build formation has been completely opened upward, leaving room to expand.
The prior broken major top at 4540–4550 has been converted into a strong defensive platform at the weekly level that is not easily to be surpassed. The 4-hour MA10 (4547) continues to rise and provides underlying support. Even if a technical pullback and “washout” occurs at the start of the week, this support line will not be easily broken.
Trading Strategy
Go long around 4550–4580 (buy the dips) targeting 4630–4680–4780. Keep 4535#xau $XAU as defense/support.