TRUMP is currently around 2.6u. It’s close to nearly doubling within a week, but I’m not planning to chase it here.
This run moved from under 1.4 all the way to 3.68, then got dumped back down to around 2.2 in just a day and a half. Now it’s bouncing again. The immediate catalyst was Eric Trump coming out to deny plans to issue new coins, redirecting attention back to the old ones. The rebound signaled by the news arrives fast and fades fast too—the key is whether there’s real buying power behind it.
Right now, there are two things that make me uncomfortable. One is the positioning on the order-flow/chip side: the whale long positions cut almost 10% over the past seven hours. Also, the latest big spot orders have been net outflows over the last fifteen minutes, and the news still shows a large transfer from a big wallet to an exchange. The stronger the price action, the more you need to watch for distribution at high levels.
The other is the technical side: RSI has topped at 81, MFI is at 94, and volume has expanded to more than eight times—everything is in the overbought/overheated zone. The price is still stuck below the 200-day moving average without breaking above it yet. The good part is funding rates are still positive, and the spot net inflow over the past three hours has been positive for all 12 candles, suggesting capital hasn’t fully pulled out across the board.
So my stance is simple: don’t chase—watch first. In a spot that has already surged a long way and then violently pulled back, the risk-reward for chasing longs isn’t great. Wait for it to pull back and hold, or for it to break above the 200-day moving average on increasing volume, then consider it instead of chasing right now. ATR has already spiked to an extreme level, volatility will be huge—don’t get too overconfident with your position size.
#trump $TRUMP
This run moved from under 1.4 all the way to 3.68, then got dumped back down to around 2.2 in just a day and a half. Now it’s bouncing again. The immediate catalyst was Eric Trump coming out to deny plans to issue new coins, redirecting attention back to the old ones. The rebound signaled by the news arrives fast and fades fast too—the key is whether there’s real buying power behind it.
Right now, there are two things that make me uncomfortable. One is the positioning on the order-flow/chip side: the whale long positions cut almost 10% over the past seven hours. Also, the latest big spot orders have been net outflows over the last fifteen minutes, and the news still shows a large transfer from a big wallet to an exchange. The stronger the price action, the more you need to watch for distribution at high levels.
The other is the technical side: RSI has topped at 81, MFI is at 94, and volume has expanded to more than eight times—everything is in the overbought/overheated zone. The price is still stuck below the 200-day moving average without breaking above it yet. The good part is funding rates are still positive, and the spot net inflow over the past three hours has been positive for all 12 candles, suggesting capital hasn’t fully pulled out across the board.
So my stance is simple: don’t chase—watch first. In a spot that has already surged a long way and then violently pulled back, the risk-reward for chasing longs isn’t great. Wait for it to pull back and hold, or for it to break above the 200-day moving average on increasing volume, then consider it instead of chasing right now. ATR has already spiked to an extreme level, volatility will be huge—don’t get too overconfident with your position size.
#trump $TRUMP