TRUMP is now around 2.555u. It dropped from 3.68 and bounced back to this level—it's rebounding aggressively, but let me say this first: I’m not chasing.
The spot market money is very honest. Over the past three hours, net inflow is more than 50 million. In the whole stretch of 12 candlesticks, they’re all red. The aggressive buy side is almost double the sell side, and the order book buy volume is also thicker than the sell volume. This support is real, so I’m not in a hurry to short it right now.
The problem is elsewhere. Open contract positions increased again by about 30% in a day. It’s similar to the move on August 20th—still driven by leverage. After a 80% rally in a week, the RSI is 81 and MFI is 94, all in the overbought zone. The 4-hour and daily directions haven’t flipped yet. Big players are even more contradictory: longs are adding on their accounts, but longs are actually being reduced within their positions.
On top of that, there’s a transfer of a large amount into the exchange, which is being treated as potential selling pressure—so at this point, longs and shorts are both fragile.
My view: spot is being picked up, and leverage is also coming in. Both sides are real money, but the direction still needs to wait. Chasing this rebound isn’t great in terms of risk-reward. It’s better to wait for it to pull back and hold, or for it to regain the 3-handle range on volume, and then reassess. If you have heavy positions, watch the volatility—this kind of stock can turn into a roller coaster if you’re not careful.
#trump $TRUMP
The spot market money is very honest. Over the past three hours, net inflow is more than 50 million. In the whole stretch of 12 candlesticks, they’re all red. The aggressive buy side is almost double the sell side, and the order book buy volume is also thicker than the sell volume. This support is real, so I’m not in a hurry to short it right now.
The problem is elsewhere. Open contract positions increased again by about 30% in a day. It’s similar to the move on August 20th—still driven by leverage. After a 80% rally in a week, the RSI is 81 and MFI is 94, all in the overbought zone. The 4-hour and daily directions haven’t flipped yet. Big players are even more contradictory: longs are adding on their accounts, but longs are actually being reduced within their positions.
On top of that, there’s a transfer of a large amount into the exchange, which is being treated as potential selling pressure—so at this point, longs and shorts are both fragile.
My view: spot is being picked up, and leverage is also coming in. Both sides are real money, but the direction still needs to wait. Chasing this rebound isn’t great in terms of risk-reward. It’s better to wait for it to pull back and hold, or for it to regain the 3-handle range on volume, and then reassess. If you have heavy positions, watch the volatility—this kind of stock can turn into a roller coaster if you’re not careful.
#trump $TRUMP